The PwC Economic and Business Consensus expects a growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 3.4% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025 and the majority of experts – 72% – rate the growth as “excellent or good”. situation that the Spanish economy is going through.
This is one of the main conclusions of the Economic and Business Consensus, corresponding to the fourth quarter of 2024produced by PwC since 1999based on the opinion of a panel of 450 experts, businessmen and managers.
The growth projections for the Spanish economy this year from the PwC Consensus (3.4%) are at the head of the estimates made by national and international organizations and entities. Behind these forecasts are those of the Funcas Panel and the European Commission, which calculate an increase in GDP this year of 3%, while the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) It forecasts growth in 2024 of 2.9%.
Other institutions such as the Bank of Spain and the OECD project, for their part, GDP growth this year of 2.8%, while The Government’s estimates (2.7%) are among the most cautious.
The experts, businessmen and managers who make up the PwC Economic and Business Consensus panel recognize the good moment that the Spanish economy is going through, since 72% rate it as excellent or good.
One year ahead, opinions (60.5%) point to a slowdown in activity but understood this with a natural phase of the economic cycle and not necessarily with a negative situation.
For its part, 93% believe that the situation of families It is average or good. For the next six months, household consumption is expected to remain stable (65%), and a 25% to increase.
Regarding the demand for housing, they rise from 28% to 38% those who expect them to increase while 49% believe it will remain stable and 13% believe it will decrease.
Two other relevant variables are the prospects for exports and competitiveness. In both, the belief is that the situation, in a year’s time, will remain the same as it has been until now. There are hardly any variations compared with the responses from previous Consensus, although there is a slight growth (from 15% to 23%) of those who think that the prospects for the foreign market may worsen.
Regarding the evolution of interest rates, the majority of respondents expect a drop ofthe current 3.75% to levels between 3% and 2.75% in June 2025, and between 2.5% and 2.2%, in December of next year. They are also betting on a slight drop in inflation: in June 2025 they place it at 2% and for December 2025 at 2.1%.
In accordance with the recommendations
This quarter, the PwC report is dedicated to analyzing the proposals included in the Draghi Report. 89% of experts say they agree with the diagnosis and recommendations put forward by Mario Draghi because “It’s what Europe needs.”
But, among this majority of supporters, 50% believe that political fragmentation and polarization, and the resistance of States to ceding sovereignty will prevent them from being carried out.
One of the measures that elicits the most agreement (82%), to move towards a truly single market, and for the EU to be able to compete with the US and China, is to relax the competition rules which, in the opinion of those surveyed , “they have greatly slowed down European industry.”
In this sense, 58% of respondents go further and they are in favor, in the specific case of the automotive sector, of imposing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. However, 35% are suspicious of this measure, because they consider that “it will generate a trade war with bad consequences for everyone.”
Overregulation
In general (70%), the experts, managers and businessmen who participate in the Consensus agree in pointing out excess regulation as the main cause of the EU being poorly operational, while 18% think that it is the main factor. “of the bad image it has among citizens.”
The panelists are divided when asked if they see the public-private investment of between 750,000 and 800,000 million euros proposed by the Draghi report as feasible. 46% respond affirmativelywhile 52% consider the opposite, in part, because they believe that companies are not in a position to invest those amounts of money.
In this sense, almost the 60% of respondents They warn of the risk that these investments end up increasing the EU debt without tangible results in the medium term.
#PwC #Consensus #expects #Spanish #economy #grow #year
