The DANA tragedy in the Valencian Country and its management by political leaders have put an end to a trend in the polls that seemed consolidated. For months the Popular Party had been gaining strength barometer after barometer and its advantage over the PSOE was growing, as were its chances of forming an absolute majority in Congress with Vox in the event of eventual elections.
However, the catastrophe of the floods in the Valencian territory, the management of the regional president, Carlos Mazón, and his subsequent role in giving explanations have ended up shaking the demographic board and dealing a significant blow to the PP’s electoral expectations. .
According to the latest Key Data study for Publicthose of Alberto Núñez Feijóo In this last month they would lose almost two points in vote estimates and nine seats in their projection. In October the Conservatives had an estimate of 35% and a projection of 156 seats.
In this study, their vote estimate is 33.2%, which would give them around 147 seats. This forecast is only one tenth above the results that the PP obtained in the last general elections, when they managed to obtain 33.1% of the votes and obtained 137 seats in the Congress of Deputies.
“DANA and the political reactions to the tragedy have affected voting intentions in a hypothetical general election, overshadowing other issues that until then occupied the political agenda. Feijóo’s PP accuses the mistakes made by Carlos Mazón. It loses almost two percentage points of voting intention and nine seats compared to last month’s forecasts,” he explains. Paz Alvareztechnical director of Key Data.
Neither does he PSOE It emerges well from the demographic consequences of the floods, although its wear and tear is less than that suffered by the PP. Those of Pedro Sanchez In October they obtained an estimated vote of 29.2% and a projection of 122 seats.
In the November study, their estimate drops to 28.3% (almost one point), with which they would obtain around 118 seats. This forecast is more than three points below the electoral results of the socialists in 23J, when they obtained 31.7% of the votes and 121 deputies in the Lower House.
The party that emerges most strengthened in the DANA catastrophe is Vox. The extreme right accumulated months of demographic studies that placed it below its latest electoral results, although in these estimates its eventual deputies were necessary so that Feijóo could preside over a government of PP and Vox (the only possible formula for the conservatives to govern, according to surveys).
In October those of Santiago Abascal They obtained an estimated vote of 10.8% and a forecast of 26 seats. After the DANA events, Vox rises to a vote estimate of 13.1% that would give it around 39 deputies. This forecast is even above the results that the extreme right obtained in the last elections (12.4% of the votes and 33 seats).
Add It is the only party that practically maintains the same electoral expectations as before DANA; This, despite the fact that before the catastrophe in the Valencian Country, the alternative left coalition suffered a severe setback due to the Íñigo Errejón scandal, which was initially predicted to sink the space in the demographic sphere.
In October those of Yolanda Diaz They obtained a vote estimate of 7.1% and a projection of 12 seats. In November, the Key Data study shows a vote estimate for this space of 6.9% (just two tenths less) and a projection of 11 seats. In July and September Sumar was below 6.5% in the vote estimate, so this is not its worst forecast.
Can It is also reinforced in the polls after the demographic change motivated by DANA. Those of Ione Belarra Since the summer, they have been around 3% and 3.5% in vote estimates, which would translate into two seats. In the November study, the purple formation reaches 4.8% and obtains a projection of four deputies.
“We can benefit from the loss of confidence of the parties that hold the governments. He gains more than a point and a half in voting intention and two seats,” explains Álvarez.
The study reflects a sinking of Se Acaó La Fiestathe project of the far-right agitator Alvise Perez. After the European elections, he was above 3% in the estimated vote in Spain, in November his estimate fell to 2.4%, which would prevent him from obtaining a seat. “The admission for processing in the National Court of the complaint against the SALF leader for illegal financing of political parties has been a turning point in the consolidation of this incipient populist party,” says the technical director of Key Data.
In Catalunya Junts would be the party with the most votes, slightly above ERC; and Bildu would be the Basque party with the most votes, ahead of the PNV (partly, because Arnaldo Otegi’s party also obtains votes in Navarra).
The study prepared by Key Data for Public It is a desk research analysis of all the information available, both on electoral behavior in the field of the election and its evolution and on all the surveys, published or not, to which we have had access. With all this information and applying the corresponding weights, an estimate of the vote is reached on which the electoral law is applied to assign seats.
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