The US State Department has declared itself “incredibly” concerned about the possibility of an intense Russian hybrid war following Ukraine’s first attack with US-made long-range missiles against targets inside Russia. The attack has come within hours of Joe Biden’s administration lifting restrictions on its use.
Russia has promised an “adequate” response to the new escalation, to the point of changing its nuclear doctrine. However, Western sources believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s response will not occur on the Ukrainian battlefield, but in other parts of the world.
Possible hybrid attacks could cover a wide range of options, including a campaign of sabotage and assassinations in Europe, or providing more weapons to US adversaries in the Middle East and Indo-Pacific regions, according to sources briefed on the discussions about a possible Russian response.
European defense ministers discussed the war in Ukraine on Tuesday during a meeting in Brussels, while the foreign ministers of France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the United Kingdom accused Russia in a joint statement of “ systematically attack the European security architecture.”
In Washington, US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said: “Overall, we are incredibly concerned about the hybrid war carried out by Russia both in Europe and around the world, and it is something we have focused on.” involved in close coordination with our European allies and other allies and partners around the world.” Miller was referring to the recent sabotage of two undersea fiber optic communications cables in the Baltic Sea, and added that Russia “will be held accountable” for further actions of this type.
Russia may decide to delay a new escalation before the inauguration of Donald Trump, who has threatened to cut aid to Ukraine and negotiate a peace deal that is expected to favor Russia.
The first Ukrainian attack with Atacms hit an ammunition warehouse in the Bryansk region, The New York Times reported, citing US and Ukrainian officials. The area is located northwest of the Kursk region, where Ukraine has been carrying out an incursion since early August.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky did not directly confirm the attack on Bryansk, but stated: “We now have Atacms, long-range Ukrainian capabilities, and we will use them.”
The Russian Defense Ministry said five of the missiles were shot down and another was damaged. The ministry added that rocket debris caused a fire at an unidentified military facility. A US source told the Associated Press that only two of the missiles were intercepted.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has promised an “appropriate” response to the first use of US-made missiles, which, according to Vladimir Putin, would amount to Washington and its NATO allies entering into direct conflict with Russia. .
The reactions came hours after Vladimir Putin signed a revised nuclear doctrine that lowers the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. A spokesman for the US National Security Council downplayed that decision, saying the review had been planned for weeks: “With no changes in Russia’s nuclear posture, we have seen no reason to adjust our own posture or doctrine.” nuclear in response.”
Keir Starmer, British Prime Minister, stated that the new doctrine will not deter him from supporting Ukraine. “There is irresponsible rhetoric on the part of Russia, and that is not going to deter our support for Ukraine,” he told reporters at the G20 summit in Brazil.
US and European diplomatic sources have also discussed the possibility of Russia escalating a growing campaign of attacks against US and European infrastructure that has worsened significantly since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
In the joint statement, UK and EU ministers said Russia’s hybrid attacks were “escalating” and “unprecedented in their variety and scale, creating significant security risks”.
“NATO and the EU have to do much more to protect these critical infrastructures,” Finnish Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen told Politico: “We know that Russia has [la] capacity and willingness to carry out sabotage in Europe.”
Earlier this month, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said Russia was carrying out an “increasingly intense campaign of hybrid attacks” that demonstrated that “the front line in this war is no longer solely in Ukraine. Increasingly, the front line is moving beyond the borders, to the Baltic region, to Western Europe and even to the high north.”
Intelligence services are investigating recent damage to cables in the Baltic Sea, which were cut earlier this week.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said Tuesday that the damage was thought to be the result of sabotage. “No one believes that the cables were accidentally damaged. “I also don’t want to believe that the boats’ anchors caused the damage by accident,” he declared. If this conclusion is confirmed, it would have to have been planned before the United States authorized the use of ATACMS missiles within Russian borders.
Thus, sources fear that Europe could see an increase in Kremlin-sponsored attacks, including attempted sabotage and arson, assassinations and attacks on military bases, transport and telecommunications infrastructure.
A former senior European defense official described the EU as “totally unprotected” to deal with a hypothetical escalation of Moscow’s hybrid war. The former official, who recently left his position, stated that Europe lacks the resources necessary to counter Russian sabotage, which they believe will intensify following Biden’s decision to provide authorization to Ukraine to use long-range missiles against Russia.
A senior European security official described the recent wave of attacks as “closer to terrorism, aiming to intimidate the population and influence decision-making, and affect support for Ukraine.”
Earlier this year, US and German intelligence services reportedly thwarted a Russian plot to assassinate several defense industry executives across Europe, including a plot to kill Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger.
Russia could also increase its support for Iran and its allies in the region, such as the Houthis in Yemen or Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The United States, which provides weapons and targeting information to Ukraine, has indicated that the decision to allow ATACMS strikes was focused on responding to the introduction of more than 10,000 North Korean troops to the front, and would focus on their capabilities. .
In October, the US envoy to the UN, Robert Wood, warned that Pyongyang forces entering Ukraine would “surely return in body bags”.
Neither the US nor Ukraine have confirmed the use of the missiles, but in a statement the Ukrainian General Staff stated this Tuesday that it hit a military arsenal at the 1046 logistics center on the outskirts of the city of Karachev. “The destruction of ammunition depots will continue in order to stop the armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine,” the document said.
Russian independent media reported that residents of Karachev had heard explosions overnight. Several videos circulating on the Internet, supposedly from the Karachev district, showed the sound of explosions and visible flashes.
“This is, of course, a sign that they want to escalate,” Lavrov told reporters at the G20 summit, adding that it would be seen as Russia for a “new phase of war by the West.”
The UK is also expected to supply its own Storm Shadow missiles for Ukraine to use against targets inside Russia, following US approval.
Although Moscow has vowed to retaliate, some analysts have suggested that its battlefield options are limited, and that the country is unlikely to resort to the nuclear option.
“The most likely thing will be an increase in attacks on Ukrainian cities and civil infrastructure facilities in anticipation of the winter cold,” said political analyst Anton Barbashin, adding that the use of long-range weapons supplied by the West is unlikely to constitute a definitive red line for Moscow: “Attacks with long-range ATACMS missiles on the territory of Russia (…) are more likely to enter the list of red lines that are crossed and cease to be red lines.”
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