After the break in the traffic light coalition, Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier considers an early election for the German Bundestag on February 23, 2025 to be “realistic”. The Federal President’s spokeswoman announced this after a meeting with the parliamentary group leaders of the SPD, Union and Greens on Tuesday evening.
SPD parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich and the Union parliamentary group leader Friedrich Merz had previously agreed on this date after Chancellor Olaf Scholz backed away from his original plan of not seeking a new election until the end of March in the face of public pressure. Scholz plans to ask the Bundestag for a vote of confidence on December 16th – if he loses it, Federal President Steinmeier can decide on the dissolution of parliament and a new election.
In the evening, the Federal President received Mützenich, Merz and the Green party leaders Britta Haßelmann and Katharina Dröge at Bellevue Palace to discuss the planned approach. In a statement it was said that the Federal President welcomed the fact that the parliamentary groups had agreed on a timetable. In the event that the Bundestag withdraws its confidence in the Chancellor, the Federal President will “quickly decide on a dissolution.”
Transparency and integrity of the electoral process are a crucial prerequisite for trust in democracy. The Federal President also called for all centrist factions to “discuss responsibly and jointly about which legislative proposals can still be implemented in this legislative period in order to ensure Germany’s internal and external security and international reliability in this transition phase.”
According to the schedule, Steinmeier would then have to declare the Bundestag dissolved around Christmas; according to the Basic Law, he would have up to 21 days to do so. The 60-day period in which new elections must take place then takes effect; this would result in Sunday, February 23rd, as the date for the early federal election. The date would be shortly before Carnival. After the traffic light went out, Steinmeier emphasized that his standard of review was that the country needed stable majorities and a government capable of acting. Donald Trump’s presidency in the USA, which begins on January 20th, is also viewed with concern. FDP leader Christian Lindner, who was dismissed as finance minister by Chancellor Scholz due to irreconcilable differences, is firmly assuming that the Union will win in the new election. “The race for chancellorship is actually over,” said Lindner at the SZ economic summit in Berlin. “Friedrich Merz is almost certainly the next Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany.”
In his speech about the dismissal of Christian Lindner on November 6th, Scholz initially said that he wanted to ask the vote of confidence on January 15th and that there should be new elections by the end of March at the latest. However, after considerable pressure from the Union, he agreed on November 8th to hold talks at an earlier date. He alone can determine the time of the vote of confidence, but had emphasized that Mützenich should hold discussions with Merz about the possible time for the new election. Since the red-green minority government that remained after the FDP’s exit does not have a majority in the Bundestag, Scholz will probably lose it.
The Federal Returning Officer considers the date to be “legally feasible”
CDU leader Merz initially suggested January 19th as a possible date, but Federal Returning Officer Ruth Brand warned of “unforeseeable risks” in the organization if new elections were held too quickly.
On Monday, after discussions with Mützenich, Merz mentioned February 16th or 23rd as possible suitable dates. In a hearing of the Bundestag’s election audit committee on Tuesday, Brand emphasized with regard to the February dates that she considered them “to be carried out in a legally secure manner”. This Wednesday, Scholz will make a government statement in the Bundestag – it is likely to be a kind of early election campaign; in addition to Merz, CSU leader Markus Söder will also speak in the Bundestag on the Union side. As a member of the Federal Council, the Bavarian Prime Minister has the right to do this – he will now make use of it for the first time.
The SPD hopes that there could now be a concession from the Union in return so that some important projects can be passed in the Bundestag before Christmas, such as increasing child benefit, compensating for the cold progression for taxpayers and, if necessary, decisions on the future of the Germany Ticket and relief of industry and suppliers as well as the protection of the Federal Constitutional Court against anti-democratic efforts. “Now we can finally move away from the tiresome debate about the election date,” said Mützenich. What particularly affected him was the furor with which an “integrable public servant”, he meant Federal Returning Officer Ruth Brand, was recently attacked.
The election for the 21st Bundestag was originally scheduled for September 28, 2025. Friedrich Merz is to run as candidate for chancellor for the Union, and Chancellor Olaf Scholz wants to run again for the SPD, but the official nomination is still pending. The first state politicians from Hamburg are campaigning for Defense Minister Boris Pistorius to run for office. Robert Habeck would like to run as candidate for chancellor for the Greens, and party leader Alice Weidel wants to do this for the AfD. In the latest survey by the Elections Research Group, the Union is at 33 percent, the AfD is at 18 percent and the SPD is at 16 percent. The Greens are at twelve percent and the FDP at three percent, although other surveys also put them at five percent.
The new election would then take place more quickly than in 2005, when the then Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (SPD) last asked the vote of confidence. At that time there were 119 days between the announcement and the new election, now it will end up being 109 days.
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