Jorge Martín, the safest bet to win the World Cup

Marc Márquez, who understands a lot about playing for titles – also in the last round, like those in 2013 and 2017 – summarized the duel for the crown between Jorge Martín and Pecco Bagnaia in a simple way: “I bet on Martín because it is the bet safer. For me Martín can only lose it, and Bagnaia can only win it. “Jorge has several possible strategies, and Pecco only one, which is to win both races.” And that’s enough. The 2024 World Championship can be decided today at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya, although only the Madrid player, with a 24-point lead, can be champion today.

In the last GP of the year

The 2024 World Cup can be decided today at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya, although only the Madrid player, with a 24-point advantage, can be champion today

The numbers, favorable to Martín, are simple: with 37 points at stake in this last grand prix (12 from the Sprint and 25 from Sunday), and those 24 from income, Jorge only needs to add two more than Bagnaia to secure the crown. I would have her winning the short race today, something that the rider is very good at. lord of saturdays with seven Sprint wins this season. Other combinations also smile at you (see attached table).

The options

Martín will be champion in the Sprint today if…

–Win
–Finishes 2nd and Bagnaia does not win
–Finishes 3rd and Bagnaia is 5th or worse
–Finishes 4th and Bagnaia is 6th or worse
–Finishes 5th and Bagnaia is 7th or worse
–Finishes 6th and Bagnaia is 8th or worse
–Finishes 7th and Bagnaia is 9th or worse
–Finishes 8th and Bagnaia does not score

By logic –Martín minimizes losses better this year–, by statistics –Pecco has never cut so many points– and by history –the cases are few–, the Spanish rider has the chance to win to be crowned king of MotoGP for the first time.

The logic is overwhelming: 24 points weigh a lot, and even more so in the hands of a driver who fails as little as Martín. “Jorge has made the biggest change this year,” analyzes Aleix Espargaró, Jorge’s colleague, neighbor and training partner in Andorra. The one from Granollers, the “only friend I have in the paddock ” –Martín admitted in an interview with The Vanguard –, consider that the Jorge of this 2024 has grown in mental strength. “This self-confidence that he has before he didn’t have. So you don’t have to change anything that has brought you here.” Even Enea Bastianini, Bagnaia’s teammate on the official Ducati, admits it: “Pecco will surely try to pressure Jorge, but it seems that Martín has learned to handle pressure very well.”

The statistics leave no doubt

“I would like to be in Jorge’s position, I envy him,” says Bagnaia, who only trusts that Martín notices the pressure

In terms of numbers, there is no more color than the purple of Martín and Pramac Ducati: with a 24-point lead, most combinations favor the Spaniard. Furthermore, as Pecco admitted, “cutting more than 20 points in one weekend is very complicated.” The Italian has only done it twice: he scored 21 points at Mugello and 20 at Sachsenring. Martín, with his second places (16, between Saturdays and Sundays), has minimized the damage. Never have 20 points been as valuable as in Jorge’s hands.

On the contrary, the Spaniard was able to add 28 more than the Italian in Aragon, the largest difference between the two in a single GP. Only a debacle like Pecco’s at Motorland (9th in the Sprint due to defective tires and a crash in the race, touched by Àlex Márquez), would give the Italian options to turn the situation around and contradict history.

“I am 24 points behind; The only thing I can do is try to win. I’m sure Jorge feels the pressure, but I didn’t see him nervous. I would like to be in Jorge’s position, I envy him, but he is the one who has to do something wrong so that I can come back,” Pecco admitted.

The story

Only Rainey, Hayden and Lorenzo were able to turn around a championship and take the title, coming second on the final day

Historical precedents also turn their backs on Turin. In the entire history of the World Championship (since 1949), this will be the 21st time that the title has been decided in the last race. In the previous 20 (6 in the 21st century), only three times did the driver who was behind take the title: in 1992, Rainey completed a 65-point comeback in Kylamai over a battered Doohan, who had missed four races ; In 2006, Hayden recovered from 8 points behind Rossi in the last race in Cheste, who suffered a crash and finished 13th; and in 2015 Lorenzo also overcame a 7-point deficit from Rossi, taking advantage of Dottore’s punishment for starting last for his kick on Márquez in Sepang.

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