The money committed to the rescue of Bankia more than ten years ago continues to be a burden on public accounts. That CaixaBank hits stock market highs and has committed a generous remuneration to the shareholder after better than expected results contributes to raising expectations of recovery of aid. With its price at 5.5 euros at yesterday’s close, the State would recover almost 12,000 million taking into account the value of its current 17.9% stake in the bank through the company Banco Financiero y de Ahorro (BFA), the collection of dividends since 2014 https://www.eleconomista.es/banca-finanzas /noticias/13060791/10/24/caixabank-gana-4248-millones-el-16-mas.htmly the sale of 14.5% that it made in Bankia between 2014 and 2017. But that amount barely reaches half of the aid granted to Bankia a decade ago and the Treasury today only has 335 million in cash because the FROB has allocated 90% of the funds received via dividends and with the sale of Bankia shares to pay million-dollar compensation resulting from the resolution of litigation of different origins.
Future expectations are, however, positive and that is the reason that led the president of the FROB, Álvaro López, to open the door last October to a new extension in the divestment due to the good evolution of the entity, to expectations of dividend collection since analysts give it a potential rise in the stock market of 25%.
The Government continues to have the exit of CaixaBank’s capital on the roadmap and it should do so before December 2025, but that message indicates that it will add its fifth extension after those approved in 2016, 2018 and 2021 due, at that time, to the unfavorable situation in the markets for disinvestment.
CaixaBank has committed to distributing 12 billion euros among its shareholders with its 2022-2024 strategic plan, and on the 19th it could point out new deliveries in what will be its roadmap for 2025-2027. The State has injected a total of 24,069 million into the Bankia group. In 2012 he joined the entity with the Fund for Orderly Banking Restructuring (better known as FROB), which remained the sole owner of BFA, the parent company of Bankia and which was originally owned by the seven founding savings banks of the group: Caja Madrid, Bancaja , La Caja de Canarias, Caja de Ávila, Caixa Laietana, Caja Segovia and Caja Rioja.
Until that moment, 22,424 million had been committed in aidbut later the entity absorbed Banco Mare Nostrum and the item escalated above the aforementioned 24,000 million because said group had received another 1,645 million.
12,000 million in dividend
The FROB controlled up to 68% of Bankia, although at the time of the merger with CaixaBank, in 2020, it had 62%. The rest was in the hands of institutional investors and small shareholders. The merger with CaixaBank took place in 2020 in the face of the many uncertainties that loomed over banking due to the Covid pandemic and a long period of negative rates. When the integration took place, the State’s participation was diluted to around 16%, but currently, after a series of buybacks of the bank’s shares, it has risen to 17.9%. The FROB thus remains the second shareholder behind the 31% in the hands of the “La Caixa” Banking Foundation.
From 2014 to the present, by virtue of its participation, BFA received 4,529.4 million from the entity for placing 7.5% of Bankia on the stock market in 2014 for 1,304 million and another 7% in 2017 for 818 million, and for the dividends paid by both entities –first Bankia and then CaixaBank–.
2,407 million in dividends
However, for years the dividends that Bankia paid to BFA were retained on the balance sheet of the parent company BFA, since the FROB undertook to cover a large part of the compensation that arose from various litigations such as compensating savers who went to the IPO of Bankia in 2011 or returning to clients the money collected for mortgage clauses. These coverages ate up the money from the sale of “bankias” and their dividends for years.
In fact, For the first time last year, the FROB collected 335 million in dividends for its participation and this year it will raise some 193.7 million with the interim dividend announced by CaixaBank from the 2024 accounts. BFA, whose structure is smaller than it was years ago, in turn has a piggy bank of 42 million in provisions to face the pending litigation as reported by the FROB in its 2023 annual report and that financial sources assure that there are already very few.
Taking into consideration that the FROB currently has almost an 18% stake in CaixaBank, the stock market value of that position would reach 7,207 million euros. Therefore, adding this amount to the more than 4,500 million that the BFA collected in the last ten years for the distribution of dividends and the sale of its shares on the stock market, the position in the entity would have returned more than 11,700 million since the rescue of Bankia, although it has not reached the public coffers.
So far this year, the bank has gained 48% on the stock marketin line with the rest of the sector, taking advantage of the good momentum in its business results due to the high rates that have increased its interest margins. It is the third Ibex value that has risen the most so far, behind Banco Sabadell and the airline IAG. Given the acceleration of the business that has provided the entity with such high profits, CaixaBank has increased its investor remuneration.
Of the 12,000 million that it has committed to using to remunerate the investor, it has already executed some 9,500 million between dividends and share buyback programs, either already carried out or announced.
Growing dividends
On the occasion of the presentation of third quarter results on October 31, the bank announced a gross dividend of 0.15 euros per share, equivalent to 40% of the profit obtained in the first semester by the entity and in line with the plan of dividends agreed for this year. The Bloomberg analyst consensus estimates a total dividend of 0.47 euros this year and 0.44 euros in 2025. Both amounts would exceed the amount distributed last year, which was 0.39 euros.
Along with the last dividend, the entity also made public in October a fifth share repurchase program for up to 500 million euros that will begin on November 19 and will last six months. From 2022, share buybacks will total 3.8 billion.
In its results from January to September, CaixaBank followed the good trend of Spanish banking by announcing a 16% increase in profits due to greater commercial activity with double-digit growth in the production of mortgages, in the granting of consumer loans and in the business banking business, among others. Bloomberg analysts estimate a net profit of around 5,607 million for this year and 5,111 million for 2025. Since the merger with Bankia, CaixaBank’s share has multiplied by three and is currently flirting with all-time highs: last November 4 It closed with a price of 5.85 euros.
RoTE of 16.9%
Goldman Sachs analysts point out that The entity has been one of the biggest beneficiaries in Europe of the higher rate environment due to its greater exposure to variable rate loans, something that, however, means it faces greater risks in the face of more relaxed financing conditions. “Overall, we expect a double-digit structural return on tangible equity (RoTE) ratio, which facilitates an attractive return on capital in the medium term,” they added in a note to clients. From January to September, RoTE was 16.9%, up from 14.1% in the same period a year earlier. The presentation of the new strategy will take place three weeks after it was announced that Tomás Muniesa, previously the bank’s sole vice president, will take over as president on January 1 from José Ignacio Goirigolzarri, who will leave all his positions in the group.
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