The State Meteorological Agency (Aenet) has the responsibility of issuing weather warningsbut we should not confuse these warnings with risk alerts, which are the responsibility of the regional government through 112 and the emergency managers. Next, we will explain what alerts are, who should issue them, and how they should be established.
The confusion between warning and alert
Aemet, as an agency specialized in meteorology, only has the technical capacity to issue weather warnings. That is, it can warn of heavy rain, heat waves or any other extreme weather phenomenon. This information is essential since it tells us, within the uncertainty, both the location and the expected intensity of the meteor. However, this is insufficient information to issue the alert.
The warning must anticipate how these extreme weather or other events will impact people. That is, the alerts inform about how exposed and vulnerable the population is to suffering the effects of a natural disaster.
It is not enough, therefore, to know how much and where it will rain, but we also need to establish how that rain will be transformed into floods and which areas will be potentially affected. We need to couple meteorological predictions with hydrological models (in the case of floods), data on the configuration of the terrain and information on the population and vulnerable elements.
An error in communicating the risk that this cold drop entailed was that the population was confused, since many considered that the danger ended with the rains. In some of the towns devastated by the flood it barely rained, so the population was not aware of the risk.
Both the Aemet notice and the first messages sent by the Generalitat Valenciana They were due to rainfall, and not due to floods. This indicates the need for greater clarity and precision in messages, and the importance of not confusing weather warning with risk alert.
Who should issue risk alerts?
Risk alerts should be issued by emergency specialists. That is, Aemet should hire emergency technicians to acquire this training.
However, to avoid duplication and increase efficiency, it would be optimal for alerts to be issued by the emergency managers themselves. Ultimately, it is emergency professionals who deal with these phenomena on a daily basis, who best understand the risk and its mitigation, and who are best trained to issue alerts.
Currently, both emergency technicians and those of us who investigate this matter face serious limitations, such as the lack of access to weather forecasts.
Problems improving alerts
Risk alerts must be based on weather forecasts. Unfortunately, detailed weather forecasts are not shared by weather agencies.
As these data are not available to the scientific community, we cannot use them to develop or test early warning systems.
For example, we lead the project “FASTFIRE: Development of an early warning system for extreme and intense fires”, financed by the Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities. For the development of this project we can only count on forecast data from international models, which have a very coarse resolution and, therefore, not operational, and with international climate reconstructions.
Even the historical data that Aemet available to citizens are incomplete and do not share basic records such as, for example, relative humidity (a key parameter to understand the risk of forest fires). Some regional agencies are even more jealous with their data. We need to establish a more fluid interaction between meteorological agencies, emergency managers and researchers to respond to a pressing social need.
Pre-alert and risk maps: the pending issue
Another essential aspect for emergency management is both training and information to the population about the risks to which they are exposed due to their place of residence. It is difficult to justify that, today, we still do not have detailed maps on areas at risk of flooding (indicating the height of historical floods), fires or any other natural disaster.
We need to develop these pre-alert maps and explain basic concepts such as return periodso that citizens can make informed decisions about their place of residence or vacation.
In training emergency technicians, the term “risk owner” has been coined. If my house is in a flood zone (or in the path of intense forest fires), I must be aware that I am the owner of that risk. For this reason, we must provide clear and direct information to adult citizens, since we must be aware of our risks.
Communication
The last element for an effective warning is in its early communication. Early emergency activation protocols should be issued as soon as possible, but require 48 hours in advance for optimal deployment. Alerts via mobile phones are useful, they should not replace public address alerts to try to reach the entire population.
There are many factors that have failed in the management of the emergency created by the current cold drop. An emergency that, let us remember, has occurred on a national scale, and we have had to mourn deaths in three different autonomous communities.
Although cold drops have always existed in the Mediterranean, Climate change will increase its recurrence and intensityas will other extreme phenomena like megafires and heat waves.
Refining the early warning system involves improving the interaction between administrations, public research organizations and citizens in general, something that can’t wait. It would also be acceptable for political managers to receive a minimum of training, and for them to be able to understand the difference between warning and alert, along with the uncertainty associated with forecasts.
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