The Democratic candidate for the United States presidential elections, the current vice president, Kamala Harrisand the Republican candidate, the former president donald trumpgo to the polls this Tuesday with the certainty that the winner will inherit a foreign policy tangled and uncertain, with two wars, in Ukraine and Middle Eastwhich threaten to expand and with a rival, Chinawhich is gaining ground in Asia and the Peaceful to the detriment of the United States, and with which confrontation seems inevitable.
Unlike what happens in other geographical areas and geopoliticalforeign policy is not so different in its essence between American Democrats and Republicans. Throughout the history of this country, both have made war or support for authoritarian regimes abroad their flag to expand the weight of USA and defend their interests at any price.
Now, the circumstances that the next American president will face are very different from those faced by the still tenant of the White House, Joe Bidenin January 2021, when he assumed his mandate. On February 24, 2022 Russia invaded Ukraine and changed all security paradigms in Europe; October 7, 2023 Hamas attacked Israel and in response Tel Aviv reduced to rubble and massacred Loopand on October 1 the Israelis invaded the Lebanon.
Biden’s Zionist heritage
In both cases, The US showed its clear position: it is the country that has dedicated the most resources to arming Ukraine and has unequivocally supported Israel’s right to defend itself, even though this has led to a genocide in Gazawith the murder of more than 43,000 Palestinians and 100,000 injured by an army equipped by Washington.
The invasion of Lebanon to end Hezbollahthe pro-Iran group sworn enemy of Israel, has left 2,800 fatalities and it is turning that country into a failed state that will have an Israeli presence on its southern border for a long time. And again, the White House aligned itself with the Israeli prime minister’s scorched earth strategy, Benjamin Netanyahu.
In the Lebanese case, the Biden Administration closed ranks with Israel to defend its prerogative to eliminate Hezbollah in any way, even violating the international law and attacking an independent country.
Biden brought US aircraft carriers to the Middle East and put them on high alert 40,000 troops in the area in the face of a possible attack by Iran in response to the murder by the Jewish State of both senior Iranian officials and allies of the Islamic regime. The subsequent low-scale duel between Israel and Iran, with a very measured exchange of attacks and counterattacks, always had American military support for Tel Aviv.
Ukraine matters less than the Middle East
The war of revenge launched by Israel in Gaza and Lebanon, and the very high risk of a conflagration with Iran into which the United States would be dragged, has surpassed Ukraine’s contest against Russia in the interest of American public opinion and for the candidates themselves, and this has been reflected in the electoral campaign.
Harris has promised to end the war in Gaza and Trump has promised to end the war in Ukraine, but it seems difficult for either of them to immediately fulfill that commitment if they come to power.
The whiff of electoralism marks both promises, although the isolationist tone that defines the trump republicansmore interested in the problem of immigration that in the European brawls, and the hegemonism of these democrats, willing not to give up one iota in Washington’s preeminence in the world even at the cost of war, underline the fallacies that emerged in this campaign.
In the case of the American vice president and candidate of the Democratic Party, this hypocrisy was evident in full force this Sunday, when Harris momentarily forgot her proclamations in favor of Israel’s right to defend itself and her repeated commitment to the alliance between the two countries. But, of course, the vote is the vote.
And this could be marked by the indignation of the Arab American voters in the face of the Israeli strategy of extermination and displacement of the Palestinian population. A strategy tacitly supported by the Biden Administration’s silence and arms support for Israel.
Harris pledges support for Gaza, while continuing to arm Israel
Thus, Harris bit her heart, forgot for a few hours that her husband is one of the most preeminent figures of Zionism in the United States and, at her Michigan rally, she promised to end the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, and to return to the Palestinians “their right to dignity.
“As President, I will do everything in my power to end the war in Gaza“return the hostages (kidnapped by Hamas) to their homes and end the suffering in Gaza, guarantee Israel’s security and ensure that the Palestinian people can achieve their right to dignity, freedom, security and self-determination,” he said. Harris at her rally in that state, where the Arab vote could be decisive.
But if in 2020 Biden surpassed Michigan Trump by more than twenty points, in this Tuesday’s elections It is the former president who has an advantage thanks to the loss of Arab support for the Democrats.
For the Arabs of Michigan, the double standards of Harris and the White House, with a lot of empty talk in favor of the peace in Gaza and Lebanonwhile they have fueled those wars with American weapons and their vetoes of sanctions against Tel Aviv in the UN Security Council.
The presidential candidate of Green Party of the United States, Jill Steinwho considers Harris as harmful as Trump, has indignantly denounced that democrat hypocrisy. “If Kamala Harris started an arms blockade on Israel right now, she would win back many of those (Arab American) votes, but she would rather lose the election than stop the genocide in Gaza,” Stein said in a meeting with the press.
Trump’s Russian factor
In Trump’s case, support for Israel is evident, but he fears the possibility that Netanyahu will unleash a war with Iran in which Washington has to intervene.
The possibility that Russia, Iran’s ally, could be drawn into the conflict is even less pleasing to Trump, known for his Russian sympathies. The former president’s new international order does not exclude Moscow, as Biden and his European allies have insisted. Therefore, on several occasions, Trump vowed to end Ukraine war within 24 hours.
It doesn’t seem like a armistice can be realized so quickly. Trump simply states the obvious: kyiv is losing the war and, as a businessman, he already sees the war as a settled matter of no interest to the United States.
Not even Harris could sustain much support for Ukraine, which has mired the West in a war that has a lot of post-Soviet conflict and poisonous legacy of the cold warin addition to the shameful economic components due to the rivalry between the United States and Russia in the lucrative business of the exploitation and marketing of natural and liquefied gas.
The ideal for Democrats would be for the Europeans to assume more responsibilities in Ukraine, but Trump and Harris know that this will not be the case and that they will soon have to negotiate with the Russian president. Vladimir Putin. It will even be necessary to force the Ukrainian president to negotiate, Volodymyr Zelenskystill determined to unleash war between NATO and Russia.
the chinese nightmare
No less important is the China factor. For the winner of Tuesday’s elections, the Chinese challenge promises to become a nightmare in the Far East if the level of pressure exerted in recent years by Washington on Beijing. And Trump seems more willing to let loose that spigot than Harris.
The trade war, technological pressure and the determined embrace of Taiwan have unleashed a strong reaction in China, reflected in its arms race, economic protectionism and the increase in its ties with those who the White House considers enemies, such as Russia or Iran.
But also, This pressure on China has led to the green light given by Beijing to North Korea (his protégé since 1949) to send 10,000 soldiers to Russia to fight in Ukraine, in addition to huge quantities of artillery ammunition and missiles.
Democratic “warfare” versus Trump’s “uncertainty”
The Biden Administration’s attitude toward China has been confrontational. With support for Taiwanese independence from China and with the rivalry that emerged in the Pacific, considered the American “lake”, in the face of the growing Chinese business presence and the security agreements signed by Beijing with the small states of this ocean basin.
The trade war between the US and China has dragged Europe, and when the sanctions have not made a dent in the production and marketing of Chinese electronic components, cheaper than American oneshas resorted to accusing Beijing of transferring to Moscow dual-use technological components that the Russians could supposedly use to make drones or missiles.
In Asia it is remembered that Trump during his term (2017-2021) met several times with the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un. Summits that would not lead to much, except to show that the businessman who became president was more interested in business than in geopolitical unilateralism taken up by Biden.
Of course, no one trusts what a unstable politician like Trump, who in the end can impose his obsession with the economy and geopolitics. A guy who one day embraces Putin and Kim, and the next he may be declaring war on them.
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