With one day left before the US elections end, everyone is looking for some sign that will allow them to anticipate what is going to happen. AND a survey published this Saturday, which places Kamala Harris well ahead of what the rest of the polls predict, It has hit the markets with such intensity that it has driven down the bond, the dollar and bitcoin.
The movement of the US Treasury bond has been especially aggressive: the reference security, the 10-year maturity, has cut its profitability until it fell below 4.3%with a daily drop of more than 10 basis points. The purchases of sovereign fixed income are explained by the increase in expectations that Harris will end up winning the elections, and the impact that this would have on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. In fact, as the possibility of a victory for the Republican candidate gained weight in recent weeks, the market has been erasing its expectations of seeing an aggressive rate cut by the Fed.
We must not forget that Donald Trump’s electoral promises bring with them a greater risk of inflation than Harris’s, due to her threats to reduce immigration and, above all, to increase tariffs across the board. If there were more inflation, the Fed would have to stop the process of lowering rates, and the bond yield would suffer upwards. However, if Harris ends up being the winner, it is likely that the market will calm down and adjust the bond’s maturity yields, as happened this Monday.
The ‘culprit’ of this turn in expectations for the elections is Ann Selzer, considered the best pollster in the entire US. Selzer specializes in Iowa, a small rural state in the center of the country, where he is able to nail the results with a minuscule margin of error, both in the general elections and in the famous ‘caucuses’ that begin the presidential primaries. His polls are right even when everyone else is wrong, and he doesn’t fall for giving numbers completely different from the consensus if that’s what his interviews tell him.
In 2016 and 2020, his polls in the days leading up to the election suggested that Trump would do better than everyone expected, and were the clearest sign that Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden would not get the easy victories he expected. everyone. But this year’s poll has been completely different: Trump would go from winning by 8 points in that small rural state to losing by 3 to Harris driven by extraordinary support among women and a comeback among the white population, until now the main bastion of the republican.
The survey has come as a ‘shock’ among political analysts in the US. If Selzer is right once again with his predictions, the most likely thing would be a large and decisive victory for Harriswhich would have a chance of winning in states that no one expected, like Ohio, and of winning the absolute majority in Congress and the Senate. A possibility that has caused Trump’s options to drop sharply in the betting houses and that the markets have begun to take seriously.
Bitcoin and the dollar accompany the bond
The impact of the survey published by Selzer has not only been felt in the US bond; In other listed assets, such as the dollar or bitcoin, the increase in the chances of winning the elections that Harris’ candidacy has experienced has also moved prices significantly at the start of the week.
An improvement in the Democratic candidate’s chances is not sitting well with the dollar, which has reacted with a drop of up to 0.7% in the case of the US dollar index. Bloombergthe basket that weights the 10 most traded crosses of the US currency. The fall is explained by expectations that Trump’s policies will end up boosting the US currency; as Harris gains weight in the latest poll, Investors would be adjusting their portfolios to a greater probability of a Democratic victory.
As for Bitcoin, the accumulated fall since the publication of the survey, of 2.57%, responds to investors’ confidence that Trump could be the best candidate for the cryptocurrency, due to the support he has given to Bitcoin in recent months. this type of currency, trying to gain the favor of investors in the world of cryptocurrencies.
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