An unexpected poll in the final stretch of the campaign gives a three-point advantage to the Democratic candidate and vice president, Kamala Harriscompared to the Republican donald trump in the state of Iowawhich has been a conservative majority in presidential elections since 2012.
The surprising poll of the local newspaper Des Moines Register gives a voting intention for Harris of the 47% in front of 44% of Trump just three days before the presidential and legislative elections are held.
This result is a setback for Trump, who in September had a four point lead in the polls and in June, when the candidate was still President Joe Biden, he had a great 18 point advantage.
All analysts assumed that Iowa was not one of the competitive swing states in these elections, but if its six electoral votes go to Harris’ side, that could modify all the calculations planned by both campaigns to reach the necessary minimum of 270.
The Trump campaign’s polling chief, Tony Fabriziohas assured that it is a statistical abnormality, partly due to its methodology, and has pointed out that the survey published today by Emerson College better reflects the voting intention of the Iowa electorate.
That poll gives Trump ten points advantage about Harris, and Fabrizio has pointed out that this survey shows parallels between age and sex groups with the 2020 elections in the state, which, in his opinion, makes more sense.
The survey of Des Moines Register gives harris 19 points advantage about Trump among seniors 65 yearsthe group that mobilizes the most to the polls in the United States.
The poll of the most important newspaper in Iowa is the only one that gives an advantage to Harris, while the rest give Trump a voting intention between 4 and 12 points above of his Democratic rival.
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