The resounding defeat of Japan’s ruling conservative party and the rise of the main progressive force in the early elections held this Sunday open an uncertain political panorama in the Asian country, in which a complex coalition will be necessary to govern.
The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and its partner, the Buddhist Komeito, saw their representation fall from 288 seats to 215, insufficient to remain in power, while the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) of Yoshihiko Noda went from 98 seats to 148, in a Parliament in which the majority is marked by 233 seats.
Why did the PLD call early elections?
Ishiba’s party decided to call early elections after changing its leadership at the end of last month and a year before the end of the current legislature. It was a bet by the current prime minister to seek support at the polls and legitimize his new Government; Despite being a common practice in Japanese politics, it has had devastating results for the PLD.
Ishiba won the conservative party primaries after the resignation of his predecessor, Fumio Kishida, who left the leadership of the PLD and the Executive in order to assume responsibility for an irregular financing scandal and promote a “renewal” of this formation.
What do these results mean?
The elections have produced the worst results for the PLD since it lost power in 2009, when the defunct Democratic Party won the elections in a legislature that ended with a brief mandate for the current opposition leader Noda (2011-2012).
The electoral catastrophe of the PLD leaves Ishiba on a tightrope, who stated that his goal for these elections was at least to maintain the majority of the ruling coalition. The still prime minister will now look for possible additional partners to remain in power, a task that seems very complicated.
Whether or not he manages to form a group to govern, analysts point out that the prime minister could already be politically sentenced by his own formation, where his figure was already discussed even before this Sunday, and they point to the possibility of him becoming the first short-lived minister of post-war Japan (he took office on October 1).
The LDP has governed Japan almost uninterruptedly since 1955, with the only exceptions being the legislatures from 1993 to 1996 and from 2009 to 2012.
Who can govern?
Given the numerous possibilities that arise after these results, some experts point out that a minority government of the current PLD-Komeito coalition is currently the most likely option. The problem is that it could be brought down by motions of censure from the opposition.
Ishiba has reached out to other forces to expand his traditional coalition, for which the main candidates would be the center-right People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the conservative Innovation Party, the third parliamentary force. But both parties have for now ruled out any alliance with the PLD.
A grand coalition between the two main parties, the PLD and the PDC, seems much less likely due to their ideological differences and because the rise of the second has been based on its criticism of the first.
Finally, the most remote option would be a “rainbow” alliance between all opposition formations, ranging from communist ideology to conservative populism or nationalism.
What will happen from now on?
The parties have a period of 30 days after the elections to negotiate and try to agree on a configuration that allows them to govern, and with other Upper House elections on the horizon next summer.
A new change of leadership in the PLD could facilitate these complex tasks for a party that faces its worst moment in decades while going through a crisis due to inflation and economic stagnation at home and the escalation of global tensions abroad.
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