The country’s reference system has fallen by almost 2 percentage points since Wednesday; expert sees risk of blackouts during peak hours
The level of hydroelectric reservoirs continues to fall in all regions of Brazil. According to data from ONS (National Electric System Operator), the volume of the Southeast/Central-West system, which brings together 70% of the country’s reservoirs and serves as a reference, remains the lowest, at 51.6%.
As shown by the Poder360the level was 53.1% on Wednesday (11.Sep). In other words, there was a 2 percentage point drop in the system where the Furnas plant is located, a thermometer for the national energy situation. The level of the Furnas reservoir is 44% – until the end of August, the level was 51%.
From Wednesday (September 11) to Friday (September 13) – the last day with the most recent data – the system that recorded the greatest decline was the Southern system. The level of the system’s hydroelectric plants fell from 58.7% to 54.8%.
The figures were expected for the dry season, but they raise an alert for even lower levels in the coming months. Part of Brazil is experiencing the worst drought in 44 years.
The situation of hydroelectric reservoirs is crucial for the country’s electrical system. The energy produced by hydroelectric plants accounts for around 60% of the Brazilian system.
The government has already turned on the alert and Aneel (National Electric Energy Agency) raised the tariff flag to red – the electricity bill became more expensive – to finance the activation of thermal plants.
BLACKOUT RISK
To the Poder360the founding partner and director of CBIE (Brazilian Infrastructure Center) and columnist for this digital newspaper, Adriano Pires, said that the scenario is worrying. According to the expert, the crisis that is taking shape in 2024 should be more serious than that of 2021, as it could cause more problems during peak energy usage times.
This is because subsidies for the installation of solar panels have changed the habits of Brazilians who are able to pay for the technology. Panel owners receive a discount on their tariffs for producing their energy during the day, but at night they depend on thermal and hydroelectric plants.
“My fear is that, unlike in 2021, you have a much more serious peak-end problem. You may have a peak-end service problem because of solar. The ONS has no idea how much this solar energy is. When the sun goes down, it enters the system to continue generating energy, but since citizens’ electricity bills have become cheaper, their habits have changed and consumption has become much higher.”said Pires.
The expert said that it is still too early to predict the future scenario, but the country is likely to experience blackouts in the coming weeks and months. What is certain is that if the lack of rain continues, the red tariff flag will prevail.
“The level [dos reservatórios] The alert has already been turned on, so much so that the government is sending thermal power directly. They say that this red flag should remain until December.”he said.
WORST DROUGHT IN HISTORY
According to the Cemaden (National Center for Monitoring and Alerts for Natural Disasters), Brazil faces the worst drought since records began in 1950.
The current drought is more severe than those recorded in 1998 and 2015/2016 and impacts 58% of the national territory.
Cemaden sent to the Poder360 maps showing the progress of the drought over the last 13 years. In 2024, it is possible to see that the phenomenon has affected a larger area of the national territory and in a more serious manner.
To the Poder360Cemaden drought specialist Ana Paula Cunha states that the increase in the phenomenon is related to a change in the pattern of warming and cooling in the Pacific and Tropical Atlantic oceans.
According to her, changes in land use, such as deforestation, also contribute to changes in local rainfall and temperature patterns.
“The data shows that in years of intense and prolonged droughts we always have high numbers of fires. It is a fact that droughts contribute to the greater spread of fire. The issue is that fire is used as an agricultural management practice, which is largely cultural”he said.
FIRES
In addition to the reduction in hydroelectric reservoirs, September has also seen an increase in the number of fires. The month is already on track to surpass the records of August, when 68,635 such incidents were recorded, according to data from the system. BDBurnings of Inpe (National Institute for Space Research).
It was the highest number for the period since 2010 – when 91,085 outbreaks were recorded – and the 5th worst in the historical series, which began in 1998.
Even before the end of the month, Brazil has already registered (from September 1st to 13th) 53,086 fire outbreaks. If this rate continues, it could end September with more than 100,000 outbreaks – considering the daily average recorded so far.
The increase in the number of fires is also associated with the worst drought in the country’s history.
Understand the causes:
The drought and dry spells that affect most municipalities are common in the Brazilian winter. The season began in June and continues until the end of September. However, the intensity of the droughts this year is atypical. There are two factors that have the greatest impact on the situation:
- strong heat waves – there have been 6 since the start of the season, according to the Cemaden (National Center for Monitoring and Alerts for Natural Disasters). On the other hand, there were only 4 cold waves;
- anticipation of drought – In some regions of Brazil, the dry season began before winter. In the Amazon, for example, the drought intensified almost 1 month earlier than expected, at the beginning of June.
DROUGHT IN THE AMAZON
In the Amazon region, in addition to the fires, the drought is taking on worrying forms. Amazonian municipalities are facing about a year of drought. It is the longest drought ever recorded. There are 3 main causes:
- El Niño intensity – the rainfall regime was impacted by the phenomenon that warmed the waters of the Pacific Ocean. It peaked at the beginning of this year and influenced the beginning of the drought;
- abnormal warming of the waters of the North Tropical Atlantic – the temperature in the maritime region, which is above South America, increased by 1.2 °C to 1.4 °C in 2023 and 2024;
- record global temperatures – In July, the world broke the record for the highest temperature ever recorded in history. The scenario creates conditions for stronger heat waves.
Read more:
CLIMATE AUTHORITY
The president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) announced on Tuesday (September 10, 2024) the creation of the Climate Authority, an agency responsible for monitoring and complying with the federal government’s environmental goals. It will also be responsible for integrated actions with states and municipalities.
This is one of the main campaign promises of the PT candidate for the 2022 election, but until now it had not come to fruition.
The announcement was made during a meeting with mayors in Manaus (AM), one of the regions most affected by climate change and facing a record drought. Despite the announcement, the PT member did not detail who he would nominate to lead the new agency.
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