Bolsonaro’s party has 17 names in 1st place or tied in that position with other candidates, according to recent surveys available in 85 of the 103 municipalities with more than 200 thousand voters
THE PL is today the party that has the most competitive candidates in the largest cities in Brazil. The current acronym of Jair Bolsonaro has 17 members who are in 1st place or tied for that position within the margin of error in the most recent polls in 85 of the 103 municipalities with more than 200 thousand voters, the so-called G103. In 18 of these 103 cities there are no reliable voting intention studies registered with the TSE and with data released in the last 38 days.
The PSD, of Gilberto Kassaband União Brasil appear next, with 15 competitive politicians each. MDB has 12. PP, 11.
The PT, of the president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silvahas 8 competitive names in the group with the largest electorate. Other more left-wing acronyms, the PSB (4), the PDT (3), the Psol (2) and the PV (1), add another 10 politicians to the list.
Attention: the Poder360 only considered in this report the surveys officially registered with the Electoral Court from August 5th (last day for holding party conventions) until Wednesday (September 11th). Only surveys that have known results reports or were published by contracting newspapers were taken into account.
In this report, competitive candidates are those who meet at least one of these qualifications: 1) be in isolated 1st position in a poll of intention and vote or 2) being tied in the margin of error with other competitors in the lead in this dispute.
As the infographic above shows, acronyms such as União Brasil, MDB, PSD and PP are in the top 10 ranking of parties with more competitive candidates in the capitals. One possible reading of these results is that the centerthe center-right and the right tend to have better results in large urban centers in the mayoral elections on October 6, 2024.
The PL (an acronym that includes members from the center to the right of the political spectrum) has candidates leading in Aracaju (SE), Fortaleza (CE), Maceió (AL), Palmas (TO), Rio Branco (AC), Aparecida de Goiânia (GO), Blumenau (SC), Cascavel (PR), Foz do Iguaçu (PR), Jaboatão dos Guararapes (PE), Jundiaí (SP), Mogi das Cruzes (SP), Santarém (PA), Santos (SP), São Gonçalo (RJ), São João de Meriti (RJ) and São José dos Campos (SP).
The PT (Lula’s left-wing acronym) has competitive candidates in Fortaleza (CE), Goiânia (GO), Teresina (PI), Anápolis (GO), Camaçari (PT), Contagem (MG), Diadema (SP) and Juiz de Fora (MG)
Read the infographics below to find out who are the leaders in the most recent research in cities around the world. G103the group of the 103 largest Brazilian cities:
- Cities with more than 200 thousand voters (from letter A to N):
- Cities with more than 200 thousand voters (from letter P to Z):
As determined by the Constitution, the first round of the 2024 elections will be on October 6 (it is always on the first Sunday of October). The surveys considered for this report are a snapshot of the moment in which the data collection was carried out.
The scenario in the G103, a group of the 103 largest cities in Brazil, is important because they are home to 39% of the country’s voters. These are the locations where a second round is possible, when no candidate gets at least 50% plus 1 of the votes in the initial round on October 6. Read the full list of the 103 cities.
To prepare to gain support in the 2026 general elections, the PT gave up on launching its own candidates in some cities.
The PT’s biggest goal in terms of national exposure is to help elect Guilherme Boulosfrom the Psol party, in the city of São Paulo. The dispute in the capital of São Paulo is considered nationalized between voters of Lula (who supports Boulos) and Bolsonaro (who supports the current mayor Ricardo Nunesfrom the MDB). About the dispute in São Paulo, read the Special Drive prepared by the team of Poder360.
Read more about elections:
SURVEY METHODOLOGY
To list the electoral surveys in the capitals, the Poder360 searched the database daily TSE (Superior Electoral Court) to verify which studies were officially registered (a requirement of the Electoral Law). The Poder360 also carried out daily searches in local newspapers and on the internet in general (to check which results were published in full).
The first stimulated scenario of the most recent studies, with known methodologies and from which it was possible to verify the origin of the information, was always considered. Only surveys from August 5, 2024 onwards were considered – the last day for holding conventions. All surveys were registered with the Electoral Court. Read the full results at the end of this article. post.
When many surveys were carried out in a similar period, this digital newspaper chose to consider the study of the best-known and most relevant company in the market.
There are also cases where research companies did not release the full results, making it impossible to check the data. In these situations, the research chosen was the 2nd most recent.
This survey was completed early in the evening on Wednesday (11.Sep.2024).
RESEARCH AGGREGATOR
THE Poder360 offers its readers the oldest and most complete Research Aggregator on the internet in Brazil. It brings together thousands of voting intention surveys from all companies since the year 2000. In election years, only studies that are registered with the Electoral Court and have a complete known methodology are published. Do you have any research to share? Send the full text by email to Poder360: [email protected].
To access the Research Aggregator, click here and search for the data you want for the 2024 elections or all previous years. This tool is only available to subscribers of Power Monitorthe most complete tool for monitoring the Three Powers and everything related to power. To subscribe to the Power Monitor and have access for 30 days free of charge (including voting intention surveys), Click here.
Learn how to use the aggregator by watching the video below (1min12s):
OBSERVATIONS AND RESPONSIBILITIES
The stimulated voting intention data (with the presentation of candidates’ names to interviewees) are compiled from the results of electoral surveys released by the companies themselves and by media outlets.
The results presented are the sole technical and methodological responsibility of the research companies that carried out the surveys.
Additional information can/should be obtained from the TRE (Regional Electoral Court) of each State, from the TSE or from the research companies themselves.
FULL RESEARCH INTEGRATIONS
Read the studies considered by Poder360 for the infographics above:
In the capitals:
In big cities (with more than 200 thousand voters):
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