Although it may seem like just an anecdote, the replacement of Gabriel Attal35 years old, the youngest prime minister in almost seven decades of the Fifth Republic, Michel Barnier72 years old, the oldest in that same period, is an example of how changing this year has been. French politics, mired in the greatest period of instability in decades and with an interim government that lasted almost two months.
According to the criteria of
President Emmanuel Macron He has suffered the wear and tear of seven years of government, five of the first term and two of the second, which ends in 2027. But despite the beating he has received from almost the entire political spectrum, including the centrist parties close to him, he can say at this point that he has managed to survive and appoint a prime minister who, although not a Macronist, at least does not come from the two major opposition forces, the New Popular Front (NFP) left, and the National Rally (RN) of the populist right.
After governing for five years with majorities from his camp in the National AssemblyMacron was re-elected in 2022, but in the legislative elections weeks later, he failed to revalidate those majorities and had to endure two years of tough negotiations to get his bills passed. On many occasions, he had to resort to the constitutional remedy of article 49.3, which allows him, in the case of laws involving public financing, to pass them by decree.
When he dissolved the Assembly three months ago, no one imagined that Macron would survive his gamble.
To block them, the opposition blocs were forced to vote a motion of censure and overthrow the prime minister and his cabinet, something they never achieved because when the motion was proposed by the left of Jean-Luc MélenchonMarine Le Pen’s populist right did not vote for her, and vice versa.
Things got complicated on June 9: in the elections for the European Parliament, the Macronist candidates barely won 14.6% of the votes, against 30% for the RN and 23% for the two lists into which the left was divided. Faced with such a defeat,That evening, Macron announced the dissolution of the assembly and the calling of early legislative elections three weeks later.
Opponents and Macronists accused him of throwing the country into the abyss, but as he explained on Sunday, in The Country, According to analyst Daniel Innerarity from Madrid, Macron made this tough bet “when a motion of censure against the government was foreseeable”. In the first round on June 30, the RN, led by Jordan Bardella (28 years old and a great protégé of Le Pen), won 37% of the votes and the populist right was one step away from winning an absolute majority in the Assembly.
But the second round was still to come, where seven out of ten seats were at stake. At Macron’s initiative, the centrist parties withdrew their candidates in those districts where the left was in a better position to beat the RN candidate, and in response, the left withdrew its candidates in those districts where the Macronist candidate had a better chance. The barrage operation against the RN paid off: the left won 182 seats, Macronism 168 and the RN just 143, while the centre-right of the Republicans (LR) got 60.
Although no bloc came close to the 289 seats that mark an absolute majority, the left-wing parties – the most voted force – claimed the right to propose the name of the prime minister. Macron gave them time while the truce was being opened for the OlympicsBut divisions wore down the left-wing bloc and delayed the nomination. When the NFP finally proposed Lucie Castets, it was already clear that the left-wing coalition was stuck together, confirmed by a counter-offer from the president to name former Socialist prime minister Bernard Cazeneuve, something that a large part of the NFP leadership rejected.
The climb to Everest
In the three months following the European elections that led Macron to dissolve the Assembly, the president managed to halt the electoral advance of the RN, and to wear down and divide the left. He then felt free to look for a centrist. He could not remove him from his movement because that would have invited the two oppositions to unite in a vote of no confidence. And so he went fishing for him in the Republican centre-right.
He sought to add 60 to the LR’s 163 seats to Macron’s. And although those 223 do not amount to an absolute majority, since he comes from the centre-right, the candidate for the post could count on the RN not vetoing him. As the analyst Innenarity wrote, “politics is the art of doing what you can with what you have.” And that is what Macron did, with a result that seemed unimaginable on 9 June when he launched the risky gamble of dissolving the assembly.
After considering several names, The president opted for the experienced Michel Barnier, who in half a century of career has been a senior official of the European Union and, in FranceMinister of Agriculture and Minister of Foreign Affairs. Between 2016 and 2018, he was the EU’s chief negotiator with the British authorities, to agree on the terms of the Brexit“Rather than being right-wing, Barnier is a centrist who is well received on the right,” a source close to the Elysee Palace told EL TIEMPO.
Macron managed to rein in Le Pen’s populist right, and then wore down and divided Mélenchon’s left.
Known for his calm temperament, his patience and his thoughtfulness, he seems the right man for the gigantic challenge that lies ahead and which, in its editorial this Monday, the Parisian daily The Figaro He compared it to “climbing Everest”. It is nothing more and nothing less than a matter of solving the very serious problem of the fiscal deficit, which threatens to reach 6% of GDP, and of the public debt, which already exceeds 110% of GDP.
As analyst Nicolas Bavarez explained this Monday in his column The Figaro“after the Olympics, the debts remain”. The public deficit, which in the horizon set by the Government should fall to 3% of GDP in 2027, is going in the opposite direction, upwards, says Bavarez and lists: “…5.6% in 2024, 6.2% in 2025, 6.7% in 2026…”. Meanwhile, the public debt, which already exceeds 110% of GDP, would be at the terrifying level of 124% in 2027.
In the past, the government would have been able to raise taxes. But for political reasons and for reasons derived from harsh reality, it is not feasible to proceed down that path. The political reason is that a tax increase was the central proposal of the left bloc, which the centre and the right rejected because they considered that French taxpayers could not bear the additional burden. And this last reason is precisely the reason derived from reality.
Taking the fiscal deficit bull by the horns requires, first of all, that the prime minister speaks about the issue with all the harshness that the situation warrants. As Barnier himself said minutes after his nomination, “people expect a prime minister to tell the truth about financial debt.” And since the margin for raising taxes is very narrow, the only thing left to do is to make cuts, an operation that is always painful.
52% say they are satisfied with Barnier, 62% consider him competent and 61% open to dialogue
And besides being painful, it is also very difficult to achieve. In France, where large sectors of public opinion have been proud of the achievements of the Welfare State for decades, governments that have wanted to cut back on this front have been pushed aside by huge popular mobilisations. And some have even fallen as a result.
Other cuts are possible, especially in two areas: what experts call “sterile spending,” which is that which does not produce any long-term social or economic benefit, and the one that has to do with poor management, a sore point that the former president of the Bank of France, Jacques de Larosiére is convinced that it is possible to save up to 200 billion euros over the next ten years with a thorough and extensive review of the inefficiencies of public spending.
The weeks ahead in France
A second very delicate front for Barnier is the fight against illegal immigration. Three years ago, when he ran – unsuccessfully – to be the LR candidate for the Presidency, he proposed “immediately halting the regularisation of immigrants, severely limiting family reunification (which allows those who legalise their stay to bring their partner and children) and reducing the reception of foreign students.”
These issues are crucial, not only because they worry a large part of the French people, but because, in a certain sense, tightening immigration controls is the price that the Prime Minister and his cabinet must pay to prevent Le Pen’s RN from supporting a vote of no confidence.
Barnier’s big challenge is a deficit approaching 6% of GDP and a public debt above 110%
As long as he keeps the RN MPs calm, Barnier will be able to hold on, as the left looks weak: the divisions that have been evident in recent weeks were compounded by the poor mobilization achieved by the NFP on Saturday, when they called for a demonstration to reject Barnier’s appointment and only a few thousand attended.
Although there will be no honeymoon, the new prime minister has already won a slight majority of public support. According to an Ifop poll published by Le Journal du Dimanche, 52% of respondents say they are satisfied with Barnier’s arrival in office. 62% consider him competent, 61% perceive him open to dialogue and 60% say he is likeable.
On Saturday, as he left the Necker children’s hospital in Paris, where he paid his first visit in his new role, a woman leaning out of the balcony of a neighbouring building shouted to him: “Good luck and good luck.” He will need it almost as much as the patience and negotiating skills for which he is so renowned to get his way, as Macron apparently has.
MAURICIO VARGAS
SENIOR ANALYST
[email protected] / IG: @mvargaslinares
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