France is these days bewilderedly consulting the old political dictionary in search of the definition of some unprecedented situations. But, above all, an old term used only three times in the Fifth Republic is reappearing: “cohabitation”. The word, of far-fetched subtlety, refers to the uncomfortable moment when the President of the Republic sees his power diminished to the point of having to live with a Prime Minister who does not respond to his own political ecosystem. The phenomenon, symptomatic of a certain decline of the head of state, occurred during the presidencies of François Mitterrand (he had to appoint Jacques Chirac and then Édouard Balladur) and with Chirac himself (with Lionel Jospin). In all three cases it was the advance announcement of the end of a mandate. At the Elysée, which is now inaugurating a fourth chapter of this modality after the appointment of the conservative Michel Barnier as head of government, they prefer to call it “demanding cooperation”.
The terminology also speaks of a forced break. And beyond the dictionary, Macron is preparing to take a step back and cede power to the prime minister, to face a kind of regime change, believe those close to the Elysée. The new Macron – if the old Macron allows it – will be less executive and will no longer govern in such an ambitious way as he had done until now. Macron should recover the old style of other presidents, less interventionist and more focused on being guarantors or arbitrators. Or at least that has been conveyed to the new prime minister, Michel Barnier, who confirmed it in his first interview (on public television TF1). “The president will preside, and the prime minister will govern. New methods and a responsible and independent government,” he said.
The presidency of the Republic will withdraw from all inter-ministerial committees, will not influence the appointment of the head of the executive cabinet and the new prime minister will be free to decide the holders of each portfolio without red lines. This would also affect the pension reform, although Barnier does not seem to be in the mood to abolish the controversial rule approved by decree in March 2023. “I will try to improve it,” he said in the same interview.
The head of state reserves the powers of defence and foreign affairs, as has always been the case. But beyond that section, it is not even clear whether this “demanding cooperation” would mean that the president of the Republic would have to be accompanied by his prime minister to certain international summits, something that already happened during the cohabitation of the conservative Jacques Chirac and the social democrat Lionel Jospin.
Macron is aware of the rejection that Barnier’s appointment has generated on the street, as well as among the majority of left-wing parties and voters in France. Not so much because of his figure (40% believe he has a good profile, according to a survey by the BFM TV channel), but because of the lack of respect for the electoral result that came out of the ballot boxes on July 7. The President of the Republic urged the centre-right and left-wing parties in the last elections to form the so-called republican front, an alliance to confront the rise of the far right that forced the parties to make major concessions in certain constituencies to stop Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN).
The experiment worked, and yet – the left now reproaches him for this – he ended up appointing a conservative prime minister and handing the keys to governability to RN and its 144 deputies (if we also count those of Eric Ciotti’s party, which split from Les Républicains and became Le Pen’s squire). Barnier, after being questioned about the price that the support of the far-right party will cost, was conciliatory with Le Pen: “I respect her, I will see her through. I have nothing in common with the RN’s thesis, but I respect it. There are 11 million citizens who voted for them. And their vote counts. So do those of the New Popular Front. And also those who did not vote.”
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The situation could lead to an autumn of street protests if Barnier fails to build a government of harmony. According to the same survey, 74% of French people believe that Macron has not respected the result of the last elections. 55% of those questioned (a sample of 1,000 citizens was taken) agree with the leader of La France Insoumise and believe that Macron “has stolen the elections from the French people”. This Saturday, in fact, there will be demonstrations in about 150 towns in France. The only party of the New Popular Front that has not confirmed its attendance is the Socialist Party (PS) of Olivier Faure, which, despite everything, has already announced that it will not participate in any government and will censure Barnier’s government.
The hope at the Elysée is that this threat will not be carried out. Those close to the head of state hope that in the medium term dissident voices will emerge in the PS that will allow part of the progressive party to end up integrating into the new governing majority, although for now Faure is one of the most aggressive voices against Macron. If this were to happen, Barnier could free himself from the shackles that Marine Le Pen will place on his ankle as soon as she begins her mandate.
Barnier, who met on Friday with his predecessors in office during Macron’s mandate – Jean Castex, Édouard Phillipe, Élisabeth Borne and Gabriel Attal – has already begun to meet with political groups to design his new government. There are no names yet on the table, but Ensemble, Macron’s party, will keep a considerable quota of ministers (some could be the current holders of their portfolios). The Republicans, Barnier’s party, have agreed to join and the rest of the names are expected to respond to technical profiles or relevant figures from civil society.
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