Die AfD feiert in Thüringen am Wahlabend einen großen Sieg. Zum ersten Mal ist es der rechtsextremistischen Partei gelungen, stärkste Kraft in einer Landtagswahl zu werden – und zwar mit deutlichem Abstand. Hochrechnungen zufolge landet die Partei bei mehr als 30 Prozent. Der historische Sieg der AfD bedeute, dass es ohne AfD keine stabilen Verhältnisse in Thüringen geben könne, sagt der AfD-Vorsitzende Björn Höcke.
Von einem „einmaligen Erfolg in der Geschichte der Bundesrepublik“ spricht Stefan Möller, der Ko-Vorsitzende der Thüringer AfD, im Erfurter Landtag. Das Ergebnis sei auch ein Signal für die Bundespolitik, in der die Ampel gescheitert sei. „Der Osten ist ein Seismograph, der zeigt, wo die Reise hingeht“, so Möller. „Wir werden diese Gestaltungsmacht auch nutzen“, kündigt er mit Blick auf die Sperrminorität an, die die AfD nach Hochrechnungen wohl erreicht. Das Ausgrenzen der AfD werde nun nicht mehr möglich sein, so Möller. Die anderen müssten nun mit der Partei ins Gespräch kommen.
Mit der Sperrminorität von einem Drittel der Sitze kann die AfD wichtige Entscheidungen blockieren, darunter Änderungen der Verfassung, die Wahl von Verfassungsrichtern und die Auflösung des Landtags. Auch die Besetzung der Parlamentarischen Kontrollkommission, die den Verfassungsschutz kontrolliert, braucht eine Zweidrittelmehrheit im Thüringer Landtag.
Jubeln will die AfD am Sonntagabend aber lieber für sich. Nachdem die Partei mehrere Medien nicht zur Wahlparty zugelassen hatte, waren „Spiegel“, Bild“, „Welt“ und „taz“ erfolgreich vor Gericht dagegen vorgegangen. Die AfD schloss daraufhin die gesamte Presse von der Veranstaltung in einem italienischen Restaurant in Erfurt aus. Ausschlaggebend dafür seien Platzgründe.
Die CDU freut sich über den zweiten Platz
Die CDU kann sich am frühen Abend über Platz zwei freuen. Hochrechnungen zufolge liegt sie bei etwa 24 Prozent deutlich vor dem drittplatzierten Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW). Am Sonntagabend kommt CDU-Spitzenkandidat Mario Voigt unter rhythmischem Klatschen und „Mario“-Rufen auf die Bühne in der Zentralheize, einem Erfurter Industriedenkmal. „Die CDU ist zurück als stärkste Kraft der politischen Mitte“, ruft Voigt. Rot-Rot-Grün sei abgewählt. Er erklärt, nach der Wahl gelte dasselbe wie vor der Wahl: Es werde keine Koalition oder Zusammenarbeit mit der AfD geben. Voigt sagt, er wolle eine Regierung unter Führung der CDU und werde hierfür mit der SPD sprechen. Auch beim BSW werde man „gesprächsoffen“ sein.
Voigt had started the election campaign strongly: In the TV debate against him, Höcke seemed overwhelmed, Voigt was celebrated on social media. But unlike Höcke, Voigt was not able to fill the Thuringian market squares and inspire people. Voigt had wanted to lead this election campaign around Thuringian issues: canceled classes, hospital closures, a shortage of skilled workers. But then he himself increasingly spoke out on an international issue: He spoke out several times in favor of more diplomacy in the Ukraine war – probably a signal to BSW.
In the search for a majority in the state parliament, the CDU is likely to be dependent on the BSW. Voigt had repeatedly said during the election campaign that only the CDU could beat the AfD and prevent Höcke. He had also used this argument to attract votes from voters of other parties. Now he may be lacking coalition partners. A decision by the federal CDU rules out cooperation with the AfD and the Left Party. That leaves the SPD and BSW as possible partners.
And the BSW is the high-flyer in this election. According to projections, it achieved more than 15 percent straight away, making it a party without which a stable government in Thuringia can hardly be formed. The success has to do with the popularity of Wagenknecht, who comes from Thuringia and embodies an Eastern identity, even though she has long lived in Saarland with her husband Oskar Lafontaine. The election result for the BSW shows that there is a large representation gap in the party system, said Wagenknecht on Sunday evening. “The people of Thuringia expect that a stable government will be formed,” said the BSW head. But a coalition is needed that also raises its voice for more diplomacy. Wagenknecht had focused primarily on the issue of peace in the election campaign, calling for an end to arms deliveries to Ukraine and for an end to the stationing of American medium-range missiles. This attitude is shared by the majority of voters in Thuringia. With its Russia-oriented policies and an emphasis on migration problems, the BSW has a lot in common with the AfD, but rules out a coalition.
SPD securely represented in the state parliament
In Thuringia, the
popularity of the leading candidate Katja Wolf contributed to the BSW’s success. The former mayor of Eisenach is a well-known politician in the state, while the rest of the party’s staff, which only has 80 members accepted by the party headquarters, are mostly politically inexperienced. Before the election, Wagenknecht had speculated that the BSW could even overtake the CDU and that Wolf could become Prime Minister of Thuringia. Contrary to what some polls before the election had suggested, it became clear on Sunday evening that these expectations were exaggerated.
The SPD had to fear that it would not be re-elected to the Thuringian state parliament. But according to projections on election Sunday, it is clear that the party will be safely represented in the state parliament with around six percent. Five years ago, the Thuringian Social Democrats landed at 8.2 percent. Even that would now be a success for the party, which had achieved figures well over 20 percent after reunification. The SPD had tried to score points with demands such as a Christmas bonus of 500 euros for recipients of basic pensions or free lunches in kindergartens and schools. Lead candidate Georg Maier, the state’s interior minister, said in an initial reaction that the SPD could not be satisfied with the single-digit result. Maier had set a double-digit result as his goal in the election campaign.
After the murder in Solingen, Maier reacted with a series of proposals – probably also to stop his party from continuing its downward trend. On the day before the election, a Moroccan repeat offender, whom the country had not yet been able to deport, was taken into deportation custody. Maier, who is not yet very well known in the country, said during the election campaign that the SPD should take on a bridging function in a future government. This could probably only be a bridge between the CDU and BSW.
It was also a bitter evening for the Left Party, which, according to initial projections, received around twelve percent of the vote – a loss of around 19 percentage points. Its top candidate, Prime Minister Ramelow, is popular in the country and would have won if the head of government had been directly elected. But it had already been clear during the election campaign that the Left Party would no longer have an option for power in the future: the CDU had always ruled out a coalition with it, and its minority government with the SPD and the Greens has, according to projections, less than half as many seats as it did after the 2019 state election. The Left’s self-destruction and Wagenknecht’s split did the rest to ensure that the Left Party’s Prime Minister had hardly been able to make use of his incumbency bonus. Nevertheless, Ramelow, who is approaching 70, traveled tirelessly through the country, warned against the AfD and emphasized the successes of his government, such as record investments in education. It did not help him: Already early on Sunday evening it was foreseeable that the Left Party would get a double-digit share of the vote, but not even half as many votes as five years ago, when it achieved 31 percent.
The evening is even sadder for the Greens and FDP. In 2019, both parties narrowly managed to get into the state parliament. This time, according to projections, the Greens missed out on re-entry into parliament with around four percent. In large parts of eastern Germany, they have long been used as an enemy and scapegoat, as price and warmonger. At demonstrations in Saxony and Thuringia, people carried signs reading “Greens to the Eastern Front”. For the Thuringian FDP, led by former short-term Prime Minister Thomas Kemmerich, it had long been unlikely that they would be able to make it back into the state parliament. The parliamentary exit was then confirmed on Sunday evening, with projections putting the FDP at around one percent.
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