08/29/2024 – 17:39
After breaking its closing record on Wednesday, for the first time at around 137,000 points, the Ibovespa settled down on Thursday, the 29th, taking profits on a day of pressure on the exchange rate and the domestic interest rate curve. The B3’s performance went against the trend of the advance in New York of the main stock indexes for most of the day – and, after fluctuating in the final stretch, without a single signal at the close: Dow Jones +0.59%, S&P 500 stable and Nasdaq -0.23%, which contributed to the losses becoming more pronounced here, close to the close.
On Thursday, the Ibovespa fluctuated from 135,857.81 to 137,370.36 points, opening at 137,349.23 points. At the end, it showed a drop of 0.95%, to 136,041.35 points, with turnover at R$20.7 billion in the session.
This week, the index has accumulated a gain of 0.32%, with the monthly gain at 6.57%. This year, the benchmark has risen 1.38%.
“With the focus on earnings season in the United States over, the market’s attention should turn to the broader economic scenario. There is speculation about a possible 100 basis point reduction in US interest rates by the end of the year, although uncertainty remains regarding the Federal Reserve’s decision to implement a modest cut of 25 basis points, or a more significant one of 50 basis points, next month,” notes Guide Investimentos in a note, in which it also draws attention to the release, tomorrow, of the Fed’s preferred indicator for inflation, the core PCE, which “will be crucial for this deliberation”.
“Brazil operated today in the opposite direction to the rest of the world, with stock markets up for much of the session,” says Larissa Quaresma, an analyst at Empiricus Research, highlighting the strong second reading of the US GDP for the April-June quarter. “There was an upward revision of economic growth in the United States. And the first reading of the GDP for April-June had already come in above expectations,” she adds. “This resulted in a global rise in the dollar today and also in the opening of the US interest rate curve,” points out the analyst, referring to the immediate effects on the market of the perception that the US economy remains more solid than previously estimated.
“The American economy is very healthy, growing, even though inflation is falling – a combination that brings investor resources to the United States,” concludes Larissa, referring to a “goldilocks” scenario for the American economy – “neither hot enough to bring inflation, nor cold enough to result in fears of recession or doubts about corporate profits.” In other words, as the expression cited by the analyst suggests (“goldilocks”), the perfect scenario for an economy.
On the domestic agenda, “we had some important data, such as the IGP-M below market expectations and the monthly IPP slightly above expectations,” says Anderson Silva, partner at GT Capital. “After a few days of significant upward movement, the market actually made a profit-taking move today,” adds the specialist.
“The dollar, still in a range of indecision, after a few days of strong decline in previous weeks, returned today to a level above R$5.60, and may even have been impacted by this profit-taking on the Stock Exchange by foreign investors, who had started to return when the Ibovespa was at around 120 thousand points – which helped to increase the trading volume on the B3 a little, which had been well below average”, also says the partner at GT Capital.
He notes that future interest rates continue to price in an increase in the Selic rate, despite the fact that the president of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto, has already said that “the market sees one thing and economists see another,” Silva points out. “With this, we continue to observe high volatility in all future maturities,” in the DI curve.
On the stock exchange, with the dollar up 1.22% to R$5.6231 at the close of this Thursday, profit-taking was noticeable in the most important and liquid stocks, with few exceptions. In the metal sector, Gerdau PN and Metalúrgica Gerdau managed to rise this Thursday, respectively, 2.27% and 1.84%. Among the large banks, BB ON closed up 0.43%.
On the winning side of the Ibovespa, in addition to the two Gerdau shares, CSN Mineração (+1.62%), Natura (+1.01%) and Cemig (+0.43%) also stood out. On the opposite side, Azul (-24.14%), Eztec (-4.85%) and Pão de Açúcar (-4.56%). Among the blue chips, Petrobras ON and PN fell, respectively, 1.18% and 0.68%, and Vale ON tried to turn around at the end, but still closed slightly lower, by 0.12%.
Azul issued a statement this afternoon informing that it has developed a new strategic plan to improve its capital structure and liquidity in response to current economic challenges. The statement came after reports suggested that Azul may be considering a stock offering and seeking Chapter 11 protection from creditors in the U.S., reports journalist Beatriz Capirazi of BroadcastGrupo Estado’s real-time news system. The company says the news was misinterpreted.
Rumors that Azul may be on the path to financial crisis were received with concern by the part of the government that monitors the airline sector, reports journalist Luiz Araújo from Brasília Broadcast.
A high-ranking official also told the Broadcast that the company’s demand for liquidity is similar to that observed in Gol’s operations.
The amount of resources needed to pay off already deferred debts, according to the government source, exceeds the capacity of the current state relief policies. The implementation of the R$5 billion credit line, which was approved by Congress on Wednesday, “is just a respite,” the source says.
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