The latest polls on the presidential race in the United States show the current vice president and Democratic Party candidate, Kamala Harris, ahead of former president Donald Trump by a small margin.
The average of national searches on the site FiveThirtyEightone of the main American analysis portals, points to Kamala Harris as the favorite, with 46.1% of voting intentions, against 43.4% for her Republican rival. The information is from the newspaper Folha de S. Paulo.
In another electoral poll, carried out by the American newspaper The Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos, published this Sunday (18), Kamala Harris appears with an even greater difference, of five percentage points. The Democrat would have 49% of intentions, against 44% of the former president.
The Washington Post poll considered only the two candidates and the margin of error is 2.5 percentage points.
In a similar scenario, but considering Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s participation, the Washington Post poll shows that Harris remains in the lead with 47% of the vote. Trump comes in second, with 44%, and Kennedy Jr. in third, with 5%.
In early July, a similar poll had been conducted by the newspaper, but considering Biden as the candidate. At that time, Trump was leading with 43%, with Biden in second place, with 42%, and Kennedy in third, with 9% of voting intentions.
In the 2020 US presidential election, Biden had 4.5% more votes than Trump, which gave him the advantage in the electoral college and victory in the election.
A recent poll by The New York Times also points to Kamala Harris’s lead, but with a difference of 3 percentage points: 49% for the vice president and 47% for former president Trump.
Analysts interviewed by American newspapers believe that the results show that the electoral dispute is tight. The narrow difference could mean that states still considered undecided – such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada – end up having a decisive influence on the election.
In polls by The New York Times, conducted in partnership with Siena College, Harris appears ahead in three of these states: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
The Democrat’s campaign officials view her lead with caution, as the election is defined by a small number of votes in some states.
Currently, the Democrat’s lead is slightly higher than that which Hillary Clinton had in the polls when she lost the 2016 presidential election to Trump.
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