Brazil is expected to produce a total of 298.6 million tons of grains in the 2023/2024 harvest. The estimate represents a drop of 6.6% (or 21.2 million tons), compared to the previous harvest (2022-2023). Despite the reduction, the result, if confirmed, will correspond to the 2nd largest harvest ever harvested in the country.
According to the 11th grain harvest survey, released on Tuesday (13.Aug.2024) by Conab (National Supply Company), the drop is mainly due to the loss in average productivity of the country’s crops, resulting from adverse weather conditions.
“The effect of adverse weather conditions on crop development, from the beginning of planting to the crop reproduction phases, has led to situations in which areas with reduced rainfall have slowed plant development, resulting in a drop in productivity, or in regions with increased rainfall there has been flooding in cultivation areas, which also tends to reduce productivity.”says the company.
Regarding the cultivated area, there was an increase of 1.5%, which corresponds to 1.18 million hectares more compared to the last harvest. Conab says that the greatest growth was observed in soybeans (1.95 million hectares), followed by sesame, cotton, sorghum, beans and rice.
“Total corn had a reduction of 1.3 million hectares, followed by wheat and other winter crops”, declared. The corn harvest is advanced and is already nearing completion. The estimated production is 90.28 million tons. Plantings made during the ideal window (from January to mid-February) achieved productivity “as expected and even higher than those recorded in the last harvest”. This is mainly due to the regularity of rainfall during crop development.
“Exceptions to this situation occurred in Paraná, São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul, where dry spells in March and April, combined with high temperatures and pest attacks, compromised the cereal’s productive potential”said the company when informing that there was also a reduction in the area destined for planting corn in the 1st and 2nd harvests.
The total produced in the current cycle is 115.65 million tons – a drop of 12.3% compared to the previous season.
Cotton, rice and beans
The estimated production of cotton lint is 3.64 million tons. This represents a record in the Conab historical series and an increase of 14.8% in production. The result is due to the climate conditions that favored the development of the crop. The 16.9% increase in the planted area also contributed to this growth.
The rice harvest has already been completed. According to the company’s estimate, it will be 10.59 million tons – an increase of 5.6% compared to the volume obtained in the previous harvest. Irrigated rice is expected to reach 9.74 million tons, while dryland rice is estimated at 844.8 thousand tons.
“The increase observed is influenced by the larger cultivated area in the country, since the average productivity of crops was affected, reflecting the adverse climate conditions, with instability during the production cycle of the crop, especially in Rio Grande do Sul, the largest grain producing state”said Conab.
In the case of beans, the 3 harvests of production should total 3.26 million tons – representing an increase of 7.3% compared to the previous harvest. The 1st harvest has already been completed (942.3 thousand tons). The 2nd harvest, estimated at 1.5 million tons, was affected by factors such as:
- lack of rain;
- high temperatures in some producing states;
- incidence of diseases and whiteflies.
The 3rd harvest is expected to reach 812.5 thousand tons.
Soy and wheat
The main grain cultivated in the country, soybeans are expected to close the current harvest with a total of 147.38 million tons produced. The result represents a drop of 4.7% compared to the previous cycle.
“In the areas sown from September to October, in the Central-West, Southeast and Matopiba regions [que compreende os Estados de MT, TO, PI e BA]there were changes in the productive potential of crops, with low rainfall and high temperatures, situations that caused replanting and productivity losses, unlike areas with later crops”declared Conab.
A highlight among winter crops, wheat has already completed its sowing phase in the South region, which is the largest producer of the cereal in the country, accounting for 85% of the cultivated area. “In Rio Grande do Sul, after the initial delay in sowing due to excessive rainfall, planting has been completed, as have the areas sown in Paraná. The expectation is an 11.6% reduction in the area allocated to the cereal, estimated at 3.07 million hectares.”the company said.
With information from Brazil Agency.
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