08/16/2024 – 17:30
The Ibovespa closed with a negative variation this Friday, 16th, breaking the series of eight consecutive trading sessions of gains and below the intraday record level reached on the day, with financial agents recalibrating their positions before the weekend.
+ Cielo says goodbye to the Stock Exchange with less than 20% of the market and increases the challenge for Bradesco and BB
The benchmark index of the Brazilian stock market, the Ibovespa, fell 0.21% to 133,876.55 points, according to preliminary data, below the historical closing high of 134,193.72 points reached on December 27. In the week, the indicator accumulated an increase of 2.5%.
At the session’s peak, the Ibovespa reached 134,781.44 points, surpassing the intraday record high of 134,391.67 set on December 28. At its worst, it reached 133,851.67 points. See quotes.
The financial volume totaled R$24.17 billion before the final adjustments, in a session still marked by the expiration of options on shares at B3.
The dollar recorded its second consecutive weekly fall in Brazil, closing this Friday, the 16th, down against the real, in a session marked by the firm decline of the US currency also abroad and by the increase in bets that the Central Bank could raise interest rates as early as September.
The dollar closed down 0.31%, quoted at R$5.4673. During the week, the US currency accumulated a drop of 0.87%, after having fallen 3.43% the previous week.
At 5:04 pm, on B3, the first-maturity dollar futures contract fell 0.17%, to 5.4805 reais for sale.
The dollar in the day
The reduction in fears of an imminent recession in the United States, following the release of strong data on the US economy the day before, once again helped the dollar fall against other currencies this Friday.
At the start of the day, the US currency fell against a basket of strong currencies and against most other currencies, including the real. At 10:04 am, the dollar hit a low of 5.4371 reais (-0.86%).
In addition to the influence coming from abroad, the fall of the dollar was favored by the rise in short-term DI (Interbank Deposit) rates, which priced in an even greater probability of the Central Bank raising the Selic rate in September, currently at 10.50% per year.
The prospect of a higher Selic rate has been supported by speeches by Central Bank officials. Last week, the Central Bank’s Director of Monetary Policy, Gabriel Galípolo, stated that the institution’s entire board of directors is willing to do whatever is necessary to pursue the 3% inflation target. Last Monday, Galípolo stated that a possible increase in the Selic rate “is on the table” at Copom.
This Friday, it was the turn of the president of the BC, Roberto Campos Neto, to reinforce that the institution seeks to meet the target and that it will raise the Selic “if necessary”.
“All directors are adopting our official discourse. We are reinforcing that we are not giving any guidance, but that we will do whatever is necessary to bring inflation to the target,” Campos Neto said during a participation in the Barclays Day event, promoted by Barclays Bank, in São Paulo. “We will raise the interest rate if necessary.”
A higher Selic rate, combined with the prospect of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve also in September, makes Brazil even more attractive to international capital, which in theory points to a lower dollar against the real.
The dollar attempted a recovery in the morning, reaching a maximum price of 5.4876 reais (+0.06%) at 11:49 am. During the afternoon, however, the currency’s steady decline abroad prevailed and the currency also fell again in Brazil.
Abroad, at 5:20 pm, the dollar index — which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of six currencies — fell 0.58%, to 102.440.
In the morning, the Central Bank sold all 12,000 traditional foreign exchange swap contracts at auction for the purpose of rolling over the October 1, 2024 maturity.
During the Barclays event, Campos Neto also reaffirmed that the institution decided not to intervene in the exchange rate recently, when the dollar reached peaks against the real, as it assessed that much of the volatility was due to risk premiums.
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