The Venezuelan dictatorship has been investigated since November 2021 by the prosecutor’s office of the International Criminal Court (ICC), due to accusations of crimes against humanity and human rights violations perpetrated by Chavismo.
In recent weeks, with the violent repression of protests challenging electoral fraud in Venezuela and the intensification of persecution of opponents, there has been pressure for prosecutors at the Hague court to add these crimes to the investigation and apply urgent measures against the regime of Nicolás Maduro.
The most recent report by the NGO Foro Penal indicated that 1,400 people were arrested in the post-election repression. At least 25 people were killed.
Last week, lawyer Orlando Viera-Blanco, former Venezuelan ambassador to Canada during the parallel government of Juan Guaidó (2019-2022), reported to the ICC that at least 646 cases of crimes against humanity have occurred in this new wave of Chavista violence.
According to the lawyer, these incidents include cases of enforced disappearances, political persecution, arbitrary arrests, murders, torture, harassment and cruel and degrading treatment.
Viera-Blanco called for the issuance of “alerts [internacionais] and orders of forced appearance and detention against Nicolás Maduro as head of state recognized by The Hague and the chain of command who is committing acts of perpetuation of crimes against humanity.”
Also last week, the NGO Amnesty International published an open letter addressed to the ICC prosecutor, Karim Khan, in which it criticized his “alarming silence” in the face of the situation in Venezuela and called on him to take urgent action, such as issuing “a preventive statement that alerts the perpetrators of possible international crimes and human rights violations” and publicly supporting “Venezuelan NGOs and human rights defenders, and condemning the attacks against those who are being targeted due to their tireless work in favor of justice.”
Last Monday (12), two weeks after the start of the post-election crackdown, Khan’s office finally spoke out. In a statement released to the press, the prosecutor’s office said it was “actively monitoring current events and [que] received multiple reports of violence and other allegations following the July 28 presidential election in Venezuela.”
The statement said Khan’s office “has engaged with the government of Venezuela at the highest level to emphasize the importance of ensuring that the rule of law is respected at this time and to emphasize that all persons must be protected from violations that may constitute crimes under the Rome Statute” – a reference to the document that created the ICC, which was signed by Venezuela.
Regarding the investigation opened in 2021 (which had been preceded by preliminary inquiries), Khan’s office said that they “remain focused” and asked that “any individual or organization [que] have information that may be relevant to this investigation” submit reports online.
Arrest warrant against Maduro: the doubts
Given the robust evidence of Maduro’s repression, some questions remain about the ICC investigation. The first is: Could the prosecutor’s office in The Hague seek the dictator’s arrest soon?
In an interview with People’s GazetteVictor Missiato, political analyst and historian at Mackenzie, considered that there are two important differences in cases in which the ICC ordered the arrest of other tyrants, such as the Russian dictator, Vladimir Putin, accused of war crimes in Ukraine.
In the case of Venezuela, there was already a previous investigation underway and the situation, despite being dramatic, has not yet been declared a war (in the Venezuelan scenario, a civil war), “which makes decision-making even more difficult, although the crimes have already been more than proven, and not only from now, but from previous years”.
Therefore, Missiato believes that the ICC prosecutor’s office should only request Maduro’s arrest at the end of the investigation.
In this case, another question would arise: could Maduro’s arrest really happen? If the Chavista dictator manages to complete the electoral fraud and remain in power in Venezuela, a scenario in which he is arrested within the country becomes practically impossible.
“There would have to be an invasion by another force or an uprising by some sector of the armed forces, which is unlikely, given their loyalty to Maduro. Even if the mandate is issued, it is unlikely to be implemented within Venezuela,” Missiato said.
There would still be the possibility of Maduro being arrested when traveling to other countries, but even then his arrest would be difficult – just remember the case of Putin, who, since his detention was ordered by the ICC, has only traveled to countries allied with Russia.
“Some countries, like Russia and China, would never issue an arrest warrant against Maduro. And other Latin American countries would also, like Nicaragua and Bolivia,” said Missiato.
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