The Ukrainian F-16s are getting a new opponent – according to Russian propaganda. It is likely that Putin is looking for an answer to the Patriots.
Moscow – “Su-30SM2 to attack F-16 jets,” claims the Indian-Canadian media Eurasian Times – which is probably a fabrication. However, Vladimir Putin is now sending improved versions of his SU-30 multi-role two-seater to the front – and this does indeed seem to be due to the arrival of the Western F-16 in Ukraine.
“Our military pilots have shown, so to speak, that they are fully prepared for the arrival of NATO aircraft and will accommodate them appropriately,” wrote the magazine Newsweek in May, citing the Russian online media Top War: According to this, the aircraft offer improved avionics, primarily a radar with an increased range, because this is exactly what characterizes the capabilities of the F-16. The Su-30 is also said to have been retrofitted with missiles with an improved range.
“Super Sukhoi”: Upgrade package for Russia’s export hit
Top War speaks of the “Super Sukhoi” upgrade package and had already announced it in February 2022 as a future Russian export hit. And the German magazine Flight regret claims to have identified at least two “Super Sukhoi” within the Russian naval aviation as early as June last year.
“Whoever fires first and hits wins. Modern air-to-air missiles, once fired, basically sneak up on their target and only activate their conspicuous radar shortly before impact. By then it is often too late to evade. This usually has little to do with wild maneuvers, machine gun fire and Hollywood.”
Now the invasion troops also seem to have received these new machines. The Russian news agency Cup has now reported that the upgraded machines have apparently just been handed over to the Ministry of Defense. According to the Eurasian Times This is said to have been the first batch of jets for this year, and two machines can be seen in video material on social networks. This may also have been the complete delivery.
“While the Russian military is expected to acquire several dozen newly built Su-30SM2 combat aircraft, the new aircraft primarily represents an upgrade package for older Su-30SMs, all of which are to be brought up to this standard,” wrote Top War two years ago – it obviously took so long to implement this upgrade package. The main improvement would not be the advanced radar technology, but rather the integration of the Su-35’s engine.
Putin’s offensive aircraft: higher climb rate, smaller turning radius, longer service life
Loud Top War The new unit promises 16 percent more thrust than the older engine and will enable the fighter aircraft to “take off with a larger weapon payload, maneuver better and fly longer due to its higher efficiency,” according to the magazine. According to the magazine Army recognition The new model promises improved performance in terms of “climb rate, turning radius and engine life”. However, the SU-30 and F-16 aircraft types are less likely to engage in dogfights than to try to keep each other at a distance.
The new radar will primarily provide the ability to “deploy Kh-59 standoff missiles and a range of new guided bombs.” According to the Flight Review In the future, the Su-30SM2 will even be “able to exchange information with drones and even control them,” as the magazine from the Russian newspaper Izvestiya. In addition to a wide arsenal of conventional UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles), the Su-30SM2 will also have the newly developed Stealth combat drone S-70 Ochotnik to the side, as the magazine reports. The Su-30SM2 is a two-seater suitable for missions such as the Flight Review judges.
Russia’s propaganda campaign: Pilots see themselves armed against the F-16
“This would allow the aircraft to detect the enemy and attack him at a distance of hundreds and thousands of kilometers.” The Su-30SM2 fighter jets are the next stage of development of the aircraft used by the Russian armed forces, praised the Cup a spokesman for the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC); they are manufactured at the Irkutsk Aviation Plant – a subsidiary of UAC and part of the state-owned Rostec corporation. The spokesman claimed that the combat potential of the aircraft had increased after the modernization. Russia hopes to sell the upgrade package to its existing Su-30 customers Algeria, Belarus, India, Malaysia and Vietnam;
Already in July Army recognition reported that Su-30 pilots were developing strategies to counter F-16 fighters – at the time, the delivery of the first machines to Ukraine was imminent. “Russian pilots are confident that they can handle possible confrontations with the F-16, as they are well aware of the machine’s aerodynamics and its perceived weaknesses in close combat,” wrote Army recognition about the confidence of the Russian Air Force.
Close combat almost illusory: Su-30SM2 and F-16 probably only see each other on the radar
However, experts tend to distance themselves from the likelihood of close combat: “Whoever fires and hits first wins. Modern air-to-air missiles, once fired, basically sneak up on their target and only activate their conspicuous radar shortly before impact. Then it is often too late to evade. This usually has little to do with wild maneuvers, machine gun fire and Hollywood,” writes Lukas Stock for the German wave about the reality of air warfare.
The enemy aircraft will most likely only meet on the radar screen. The F-16 fighter jets should initially act defensively. In preparation, Ukraine has apparently tried to neutralize batteries of long-range S-300 or S-400 anti-aircraft missiles – ultimately to give the F-16 fighter jets elbow room in the air in a reasonably safe airspace; in turn, to be able to attack Iskander positions or incoming cruise missiles – “this should give the F-16s a high chance of survival,” says Colonel Markus Reisner of the Austrian Federal Army in ZDF.
Ukraine has to wait: Pilots need years for their new system
At this point in time, air battles against Russian pilots who are experienced with Russian systems would probably be a suicide mission for the Ukrainian pilots anyway – analysts expect that the newly trained crews would need years to master the F-16 even under close combat conditions.
“Although Ukrainian fighter pilots already have basic flight skills, adapting to an aircraft with a fundamentally different cockpit surface and instrument layout based on a different concept of ergonomics requires a different mindset. This reality means that even experienced fighter pilots will need time to adapt effectively,” write Christopher Koeltzow, Brent Peterson and Eric Williams, for example.
Russia’s real nightmare: Patriots push back the Air Force
In addition, their experience flying Soviet-era fighter aircraft would not necessarily translate to the fly-by-wire controls and design of the F-16, warn the scientists at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)They estimate that the tactical training alone will take at least one year.
On the contrary, the newly equipped Su-30 aircraft will probably be effective against the Ukrainian Patriot positions. “The Patriot has shown a pretty spectacular performance in Ukraine,” said Justin Bronk, speaking to the magazine Business Insider (BI) at the beginning of the year. The analyst of the British think tank Royal Services Institute (RUSI) added to the BI that “the Ukrainian operators are obviously well trained and have figured out very well how to use the system in their own tactical scenarios.”
In this respect, the air-ground duels are apparently leading to the Su-30SM2s hunting the Patriot and Atacms positions, just as the F-16s are firing on the S-300 and S-400 batteries. The fact that the Russian Air Force has to get more power out of its aircraft is therefore a consequence of the Ukrainian finesse in dealing with Western weapons – such as the fact that they know how to skilfully exploit the range of the Patriot missiles, as Justin Bronk explains in Business Insider suspected that the fact that Ukraine could do this had prompted Russia to station some fighter jets further away from the front line. (Karsten Hinzmann)
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