HS analysis|The Ukrainian operation in Kursk has started successfully, but it is taking a big risk with its operation, writes John Helin, an expert who follows the war in Ukraine.
Tuesday morning Ukraine started a daring operation. American-made Personnel Carriers burst through the Russian border, supported by artillery fire and electronic warfare.
Behind the first line of defense, an emptiness awaited the attacker.
Before anyone in Russia fully understood what was happening, the first light divisions were already deep in Kursk, and more troops were pouring across the border into Russian soil.
The biggest attack on Russia since World War II was underway.
As I write this is the fifth morning of the operation, and the situation is still confused. It is clear that Ukraine managed to surprise Russia almost completely.
The Russian forces massed on the border were prepared for similar attacks by lighter forces, which were seen in the Belgorod region in the spring of 2023 and 2024.
However, instead of previous attacks, Ukraine threw hundreds of soldiers and dozens of armored vehicles into the game on Tuesday. The light border troops had no hope of stopping the attack.
According to Russian war bloggers, the Ukrainian troops concentrated in Sumy had indeed been noticed, but neither the local commanders nor the Russian General Staff had reacted to them appropriately.
It may be that Russia simply did not consider this kind of attack possible.
In Russia, one might have expected that the information about the large attack operation would leak to the ears of intelligence, or that the Western countries would forbid Ukraine from carrying out the operation, because in the Russian narratives Ukraine is completely on the leash of the West.
However, Ukraine managed to keep its operation secret. Despite Russian propaganda, Ukraine is an independent actor, not Ukraine’s Western backers knew of the operation before it begins.
Western ones the sidelining of the supporters may have been due to the fact that Ukraine did not believe that they would react favorably to the operation.
It is easier to apologize than to get permission, and information about the operation could have leaked to Russia from Western authorities who were critical of it.
The scope of the operation and the success it achieved at the beginning has also created its own pressure on Western countries to support the operation.
Western countries have publicly accepted the operation, and for example the United States has allowed the use of the Himars rocket launcher system to support the success of the operation.
Ukraine is now making public efforts under the guise of the Kursk operation to land The United States to also release the use of long-range ATACMS missiles on the Russian side.
The operation started by Russia in the spring in the Kharkiv area must also have changed the attitude of Western countries towards the sanctity of Ukraine’s northern border.
By action also has its dark side.
Although Western countries publicly support the operation in Ukraine, there will certainly be serious discussions behind the scenes. The US certainly doesn’t like being kept in the dark. Thanks will also be given to how Ukraine, with its operation, forces the United States to open restrictions on the use of weapons.
For example, banning the use of Himars in the Kursk region could easily be framed as deliberate sabotage of the operation.
A major power certainly does not enjoy a situation where Ukraine’s actions can raise tensions between the United States and Russia without it having a say in the matter.
From Ukraine’s perspective, the indignation at the continued restriction of the use of weapons is completely understandable, but in Washington it can well be seen that the tail is trying to wag the whole dog.
Ukraine take a military risk with the operation.
The aim of the Kursk operation is probably to withdraw Russian troops from the crisis areas of the front, and to take over a part of Russia as a token for future, possible negotiations.
To achieve that, the majority of Ukraine’s strategic reserve has been thrown into Kursk, which could also have been used on the eastern front”critical” to ease the situation.
Although the beginning of the operation has seemed successful, a lot can still change. Additional Russian troops are just beginning to flow into the area.
If the operation is not able to relieve the pressure on the eastern front, Ukrainian forces suffer significant losses, and Russia cannot be pressured into negotiations, Ukraine’s position may deteriorate significantly as a result of the operation.
If the operation succeeds in its goals, it is considered a military genius.
In Kursk, they are now playing sunk rich and poor. The coming days will reveal what kind of cards Ukraine holds in its hands.
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