Ukraine is in the midst of a demographic crisis. In the third year of the Ukrainian war, the number of deaths in the country is three times higher than the number of births.
Munich – Russian losses in the Ukraine war are enormous. According to figures from the Ukrainian General Staff, Moscow has lost almost 585,140 soldiers since the Russian attack on Ukraine in February 2022. But Ukraine is also suffering greatly from the effects of the war – both on the battlefield and in general terms when looking at the country’s population. New published figures now show the full extent. The population in Ukraine is declining rapidly. The number of newborn children is far below the death rate.
Ukraine reports three times more deaths than births – Demographic crisis in war
How the portal Opendatabot citing the Ukrainian Ministry of Justice, the number of deaths in Ukraine this year was three times higher than the number of births. In the first six months of 2024, 87,655 children were born in Ukraine – another significant drop compared to previous years. In contrast, 250,972 people died in Ukraine in the first half of 2024. The population of Ukraine has therefore shrunk by more than 160,000 people – if immigration and emigration are excluded.
The death rate in Ukraine is therefore almost three times as high as the birth rate. For comparison: in Germany, too, significantly more people have died than were born in recent years. In 2023, the death rate was almost 1.5 times as high as the birth rate. This is according to figures from the Federal Statistical Office.
Population change in the Ukraine war – figures from war zones missing
Most births were reported in the region around the capital Kiev and in the south and west of Ukraine. The lowest numbers were reported in the areas on the front lines and in the contested regions of Zaporizhia, Kherson and Donetsk. However, the data sets are not complete. This is mainly because only incomplete figures are reported from the regions in eastern Ukraine that are partially controlled by Russia. No figures at all were reported from the Luhansk region and the Crimean peninsula, which was annexed by Russia in violation of international law.
Most deaths occurred in the populous regions of Kyiv, Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk. However, the data sets only contain absolute numbers. There is no information on the causes of death.
Population change in the Ukraine war – fewer and fewer births in Ukraine
The number of births in Ukraine has been falling steadily in recent years. In 2018, 164,287 children were born in the first half of the year. In 2022 – the year of the Russian invasion of Ukraine – 106,430 children were born in the same period. A decrease of almost a third. The number of deaths, on the other hand, was 349,041 people in the first half of 2021 at the height of the corona pandemic, but has fallen again since then. Here, too, missing data from the Russian-occupied territories can distort the actual values.
Population in Ukraine shrinks – millions of war refugees abroad
At its peak in the mid-1990s, over 50 million people lived in Ukraine – in January 2024, there were still 37 million. The demographic crisis is exacerbated by a large number of people who have left the country because of the war in Ukraine. By the end of May this year, 4.3 million war refugees from Ukraine had received protection in EU countries, the media service Integration reported. According to reports from the Kyiv Independent According to the report, 700,000 more people could leave Ukraine by the end of 2025.
How the war is changing the country can be seen in many places in Ukraine. For example, in Bucha in the Kiev region, the first all-female volunteer air defense unit was set up. The “Witches of Bucha” are taking on the task after many young men were murdered in the Bucha massacre or are fighting on the front lines. If the war against Vladimir Putin and Russia continues for much longer, the demographic crisis in Ukraine is likely to worsen even further. (fd)
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