The assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniya has spilled over into the war that Israel is waging against the group in Gaza for its massacre on October 7. Since then, much of the diplomatic efforts of the US and its allies have focused on preventing the conflict from spreading to the Middle East. The brutal Israeli response to that attack has not yet reversed the steps taken to de-escalate the conflict in the region (the Abraham Accords or the thaw between Saudi Arabia and Iran). All of that is up in the air again.
Beyond the effect that killing Haniya might have on the ceasefire that Israel and Hamas were negotiating (with the mediation of Egypt and Qatar), doing so in Tehran constitutes a clear warning to Iran, the patron of the so-called Axis of Resistance, which includes the aforementioned Palestinian group. Opinions are divided between those who fear the Islamic Republic’s response and those who are convinced that the Iranian regime will not enter into a war to defend Hamas.
The former rely on official statements (“Iran has a duty to take revenge,” said Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei). The latter on events since October 7, in particular Tehran’s measured response to the assassination by an Israeli missile of several Revolutionary Guard commanders in its Damascus consulate last April, and the disdain with which it reacted to the subsequent bombing of a military base in Isfahan. But Wednesday’s attack (whose authorship Israel neither confirms nor denies) raises the risk a notch: it hit an officers’ residence in the capital of the Islamic Republic.
For one thing, it is a blow to Iran’s security apparatus, with its powerful Revolutionary Guard at its head. The timing, just hours after the inauguration of Masud Pezeshkian as president, adds insult to injury. The ability to penetrate its anti-aircraft defences is humiliating for a regime that is full of threats against the West in general, and Israel in particular. Only last week, the outgoing Minister of Intelligence, Esmail Khatib, boasted that his greatest achievement had been “breaking the Mossad network of infiltrators” (the Israeli secret service). What seems broken, or at least badly damaged, is the internal structure of his department.
The Islamic Republic has found its match in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. While waiting for the “harsh punishment” that Khamenei has announced for the “Zionist regime,” the bold operation puts the new president in a difficult position. His priorities (especially improving relations with the West, whose sanctions over the nuclear program are crippling the economy) are postponed by the urgency of retaliation, which in turn sabotages the chances of rapprochement. Any possible negotiation to restore the nuclear agreement is up in the air. And the neighbors are watching with concern as the temperature rises.
Knowing what’s happening outside means understanding what’s going to happen inside, so don’t miss anything.
KEEP READING
Follow all the international information at Facebook and Xor in our weekly newsletter.
#Waiting #Irans #response