These presidential elections in Venezuela will be decisive. Chavismo is playing for its continuity in power after 25 years of governing, while the opposition hopes to achieve the political change it has been pursuing for more than two decades. The most traditional and credible pollsters predict Edmundo González Urrutia, a former Venezuelan diplomat who ended up occupying the opposition’s unitary candidacy after María Corina Machado was unable to register following the disqualification that fell on her last year and prevented her from running in the election, will win.
The gap between the two main candidates, according to the counts by ClearPath Strategies, Consultores 21, Delphos and the Andrés Bello Catholic University, Poder y Estrategia and ORC Consultores, is between 20 and 30 points in favor of González. However, the government has denied the unanimity of the polls. In fact, Nicolás Maduro Guerra, the president’s son who is seeking a third term, told EL PAÍS that they have opinion polls that give Maduro an advantage of between eight and ten points.
The electoral campaign that began on July 4 was marked by a wave of political repression and arrests denounced by various human rights organizations in the country. There was also a clear contrast in the resources used by both campaigns. While Maduro made an impressive display of wedges and billboards throughout the country (putting the entire State apparatus at his service in open violation of electoral law), the opposition appealed to the power of social networks, community organization and the emotional factor to undertake a tour of the regions most affected by the economic crisis and the exodus, which highlighted the political phenomenon that Machado’s leadership has become.
Expectations on voter turnout
In the past two presidential elections, citizen participation has been contrasting. In 2013, after the death of Hugo Chávez, 79.6% of the electoral roll was mobilized, one of the highest in recent years. The results provided by the National Electoral Council gave Nicolás Maduro a 1.49% lead over his opposition rival, Henrique Capriles. Despite the opposition requesting an audit, Maduro’s victory was described as “irreversible.”
When the president ran for re-election in the 2018 elections, participation fell considerably, with only 46% of the electoral roll turning out. That year, the Democratic Unity Roundtable decided not to formally participate in the elections due to irregularities in the contest. There was also no international observers present.
The Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA) has anticipated that the possibility of a democratic transition could mobilize a greater number of citizens in 2024. “To the extent that we surpass that participation threshold, which is a little more than 55 percent (of the Electoral Registry), the positive scenarios tend to be those with the greatest probability, those of a victory for democratic forces,” said researcher Héctor G. Briceño in a talk for the organization.
According to the latest update from the CNE, in Venezuela there are a total of 21,620,705 voters, but this figure must be discounted by the eight million Venezuelans who have emigrated since 2015, according to the UN. That is, just over 13 million will be able to participate in these elections.
How many Venezuelans will vote abroad?
The Venezuelan Electoral Observatory has estimated that there are around five million Venezuelans with the right to vote abroad, but only 1% will be able to vote this Sunday as a result of the various obstacles imposed by the Venezuelan authorities. The total number of registered voters is 69,211.
The role of witnesses in this crucial election
The highest authorities within the voting centers are the members of the polling station, who play an impartial role and are responsible for the voting process, from the installation of the polling station, the reception and verification of the identity of the voters, to the final counting of the votes. For their part, the accredited witnesses (main and alternate) of each of the political factions in the race have the right to witness the entire vote, report any irregularities and participate in the counting and verification of results. They review and certify that the voting receipts match the data that appear in the counting report.
The director of the Venezuelan Electoral Observatory (OEV), Luis Lander, told the local press that the witnesses have a fundamental role because they must ensure the transparency of the process and guarantee that the votes of their candidate are not altered. Their role is basically to defend the votes. Chavismo and the opposition accredited some 90,000 witnesses who will be present at the 30,026 polling stations throughout the country.
International observation of this election will be concentrated on delegations from the Carter Center and the UN, so the role of witnesses and citizen oversight will be essential to ensure that the process is transparent and that the will of the Venezuelan people is respected.
Can political actors announce results?
The answer is no. The tradition in democratic countries is that candidates and the media can reveal electoral trends throughout the day. Celebrities exit polls (or exit polls) are a clear example of this. However, in Venezuela, Attorney General Tarek William Saab warned that “anyone who usurps functions of the CNE will be committing a crime.”
On the other hand, Venezuela has a very restrictive environment for the work of the media. The country is ranked 156 out of 180 in the world index of press freedom. This situation is compounded by the loss of access to information. More than 400 media outlets have closed in recent years.
How are votes counted?
When there are no voters in line and the polling station is closed, the president of the table, in the presence of the witnesses, must print the voting record with the results. This contains a QR code that everyone can scan. Then, the results will be verified, which, as electoral expert Eugenio Martínez explains, is done by drawing lots and based on the number of tables in the polling station. Once the receipts are counted manually (issued by the machines after the vote and deposited in a ballot box by the voter), it is confirmed that the result matches the voting record. The record is then signed, copies are given to the candidates’ witnesses, and the data is sent to the CNE’s totaling center in Caracas. It is key that the electoral body breaks down the results for each center and each table in order to verify the result.
The tables that undergo citizen verification (in which the voting vouchers are manually counted to check that they match the results of the counting report) must be drawn at the end of the election day following this criterion 👇 pic.twitter.com/lkioCTOyQI
— Eugenio G. Martinez (@puzkas) July 25, 2024
When will the results announcement take place?
The end of elections in Venezuela is almost always agonizing. The CNE does not usually announce results until the trend is irreversible, so if the level of participation is high as expected, and thousands of polling stations close after six in the evening, the first bulletin could be issued in the early hours of Monday morning.
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