07/21/2024 – 19:39
Political scientist and partner at Tendências Consultoria Rafael Cortez told BroadcastGrupo Estado’s real-time news system, that Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the US presidential race should shake up the markets and reward uncertainty. Biden announced earlier this Sunday (21) that he will no longer run for re-election, and that he supports the name of his vice president, Kamala Harris, to be the Democratic candidate in the race.
“It should affect the markets, although more marked by uncertainty, rewarding uncertainty, than by a concrete perception of what will happen,” said Cortez. According to him, traders were working with a very strong probability of Republican Donald Trump being elected. Now, the contest would be more balanced.
“The effects are still reasonably controlled until we have a more concrete sign of who the alternative will be, of having the first signs of this new candidate. Everything indicates that it could be Harris,” declared the political scientist. According to him, the market is waiting for the developments of the replacement to analyze the discourse on economic issues of whoever assumes the candidacy.
Cortez stated that there should be euphoria among Democrats at first, and that the strength of the new candidacy would depend on the ability of the new name chosen to unify the party around him.
The analyst also stated that Biden and Trump have similar rejection rates. If the Democratic candidate is someone else, the party may have an easier time playing on Trump’s rejection. “The Biden-Harris change, or Biden-another name, allows the party the opportunity to exploit a campaign with varying rejection rates, canceling out the effect of the government’s negative assessment,” said Rafael Cortez.
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