On the international level, in Europe Prime Minister Meloni finds herself in a de facto position of isolation with respect to the composition of the majority supporting the reconfirmed president Ursula Von Der Lyen
Every political leader follows, during his career, a path that, like any other human event, has a parabolic shape. There is a growth phase, then a consolidation phase, then a maturity phase and finally a possible decline in consensus. This also applies to each individual government. Typically, at its birth the government obtains an initial consensus credit, which can also grow in the phase of “honeymoon”. After one or two years, usually, the public opinion’s infatuation ends and a phase of downsizing can begin instead. About twenty months after her inauguration as Prime Minister, at what point is Giorgia Meloni’s opinion trajectory?
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On the solidity of the government Melonsand on the position it has gained as the leading party in terms of consensus Brothers of Italythere is no doubt about it. The European elections have given a clear indication in this sense. However, there are factors that could, between the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025, worry Giorgia Meloni. On the domestic front, despite an overall management of the various dossiers inspired by a healthy principle of prudence (which has prevented Giorgia Meloni from making significant mistakes), and a performance of the country as a whole that has not been worse than that of other European countries, so far that “shock” perceptible, especially in the economy, that many citizens expected from the arrival of the first female-led and right-wing government.
In addition, in its majority the two parties supporting Fratelli d’Italia, namely both the League That Forza Italiathey must however (while remaining loyal to the majority and government agreement) pursue an understandable differentiation strategy (with growing competition on the right from the League and in the center from Forza Italia). And this makes it less likely that, in the near future, that positive “shock” we have spoken of may arrive.
On the international level, in Europe the Prime Minister Melons is in fact in a position of isolation with respect to the composition of the majority supporting the reconfirmed president Ursula Von Der Lyenwith less possibility of exercising a propulsive function for itself and more generally for the European right. The dream of an Italy that really counts in Europe, in this scenario, seems at least for the moment difficult to achieve.
This reduced internal and external push (with the fading of that “magic touch” that had led Meloni to win the 2022 elections), together with the increased competition both internal (in the majority) and external (in Europe), leads one to think, also using the parabolic trend models that we can derive from the opinion poll study of previous governments, that around spring 2025, a phase of scaling back of consensus for Meloni herself could begin. Will it really go this way? To a large extent, it will depend on Giorgia Meloni to confirm or deny this statistical prediction.
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