The candidate of the majority opposition coalition, Edmundo González Urrutia, leads, with 59.1%, the voting intentions for the presidential elections of the next 28th, against 24.6% of the Chavista Nicolás Maduro, current leader of the country, according to a survey by the Center of Political and Governmental Studies of the Andrés Bello Catholic University (CEPyG-UCAB) and the company Delphos.
In a statement, Delphos director Félix Seijas explained that in “any of the scenarios” of high or moderate voter turnout, there is “a difference ranging from 20% to 34% in favor of the opposition”.
“Regarding voting intentions by probability of turnout, including Chavista participation (Maduro’s political current), in the segment with a high probability of turnout, Edmundo González Urrutia would have approximately 4.9 million votes, and Nicolás Maduro 2.9 million votes,” the statement said.
In this scenario, according to him, the remaining 16.3% would go to the eight remaining candidates.
Seijas highlighted that in the survey, carried out from July 5 to 11 and in which 1,200 people registered to vote were interviewed, 40% defined themselves as opposition, 30.6% as Chavistas and 29.5% said they were “not on either side”.
He added that 71.3% of the sample think that a change of government in the country is “necessary or very necessary”; 63% believe that the real capacity to achieve this objective lies with the citizens themselves, and 86.9% believe that this change can be achieved through voting on July 28.
He also indicated that 33% of respondents were “very willing to return to their polling place to participate as witnesses in the vote count.”
The director of CEPyG, Benigno Alarcón, stated that the final scenario before the presidential elections is between two options: “political transition or conflict due to electoral fraud”.
“The opposition seems to be at its best political and electoral moment today, while the government seems to be at its worst moment, with an electoral gap that cannot be overcome through traditional fraud practices,” he said.
For him, one of the reasons for this possible outcome is that the “government’s political-clientelist and social control machine, which served to mobilize the pro-Maduro vote, is now dismantled”, while the people seem to have assumed “the direct responsibility for bringing about political change”.
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