France’s New Popular Front coalition won the most seats in the second round of parliamentary elections, with opinion polls projecting the left-wing alliance, which includes the far left, the Socialists and the Greens, to win between 172 and 215 seats out of 577, but falling short of the 289 seats needed to secure an absolute majority in the House of Representatives.
According to initial estimates, President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition will come in a close second, winning between 150 and 180 seats.
The right-wing National Rally party, led by Marine Le Pen, will win between 115 and 155 seats.
The result is a crushing defeat for the far-right National Rally party, which had been expected to win the election but suffered after the New Popular Front and President Emmanuel Macron’s Bloc worked together between the first and second rounds of the election and cast a counter-vote to the National Rally.
This means that none of the three blocs will be able to form a majority government and will need support from others to pass legislation.
Will a left-leaning coalition form?
France is not accustomed to the kind of post-election coalition-building that is common in northern European parliamentary democracies, such as Germany or the Netherlands.
Moderate leftist politician Raphael Glucksmann, a lawmaker in the European Parliament, said the political class should “act like adults”.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the left-wing France Insoumise party, ruled out forming a broad coalition of parties with different orientations, saying it was Macron’s duty to invite the left-wing alliance to govern.
In the centrist camp, Macron’s party leader, Stephane Segorne, said he was ready to work with the main parties, but ruled out any deal with Mélenchon’s party, and former prime minister Edouard Philippe also ruled out any deal with the far-left party.
What happens if there is no agreement?
This will be uncharted territory for France, and the constitution states that Macron cannot call new parliamentary elections for another 12 months.
Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said he would submit his resignation to Macron on Monday morning, but was prepared to continue to run the government.
The constitution stipulates that Macron chooses who will form a government, but whoever he chooses will face a vote of confidence in the National Assembly, which will convene for 15 days on July 18, meaning Macron needs to name someone acceptable to a majority of lawmakers.
Macron is likely hoping to pry the Socialists and Greens out of the left-wing coalition, leaving France Insoumise alone, to form a centre-left coalition with his bloc.
However, there is no indication of an imminent disintegration of the New Popular Front at this stage.
Another possibility is to form a government of technocrats that runs day-to-day affairs, but does not oversee structural changes.
It is not clear whether the left bloc will support this vision, which will still require parliamentary support.
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