The president’s party has joined forces with left-wing groups in an attempt to block the rise of the right, led by Marine Le Pen.
French voters go to the polls this Sunday (7.Jul.2024) to decide the new configuration of the French National Assembly, the lower house of parliament. After the victory of the right in the first round, held on June 30, the center and the left joined forces in the so-called “republican front” in an attempt to block the rise of a right-wing prime minister. President Emmanuel Macron is a centrist.
The movement began last Sunday (June 30), right after the projections of the results of the 1st round were released. RN (Régroupement Nationale, right), led by Marine Le Pen, obtained 33.2% of the votes. A NFP (New Popular Front, left), led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, had 28% of the vote. The Juntos (center) coalition, which includes RebirthMacron’s party, obtained 20% of the votes.
Elections in France are district-based. The country is divided into 577 electoral districts. For a candidate to be elected in the first round, he needs 50% + 1 of the votes. Only 76 candidates managed to reach this mark in 2024. The other 501 will be defined this Sunday (7.Jul).
Another particularity of the French system is that any candidate who has achieved 12.5% in the 1st round can compete in the 2nd. In Brazil, only 2 candidates can participate in the 2nd round. In France, there are situations where up to 4 compete.
France has a semi-presidential system. The president is directly elected, but shares some of the responsibility with the prime minister, who is chosen by the legislature. Today, the French prime minister is Gabriel Attal, from Macron’s party.
To nominate someone for the position, the party or front must have at least 289 deputies.
Unity against the right
In an attempt to defeat Le Pen’s party, the “Republican Front” has instructed its candidates with little chance of winning, whether they are in 2nd or 3rd place, to withdraw from running. The movement aims to concentrate all the votes from the left and center in a single name against the right.
The deadline to withdraw the candidacy ended on Tuesday (2 July). In total, there were 224 withdrawals, the majority to join the “republican front”, according to data from interior Ministery. As a result, of the 306 disputes between 3 candidates that could have occurred, 89 remained.
The Secretary of Cities and Urban Development, Sabrina Agresti-Roubache, was the first member of the government to announce her withdrawal from the election. She came in 3rd place in the Bouches-du-Rhône constituency in Marseille.A defeat happens; dishonor, never”, he declared. “Not even 1 vote for the far-right candidate.”
For Le Pen, the initiative to block her party is an attempt by Macron to “frustrate the democratic process”. According to her, the president “plans, even if the people express themselves by sending a majority of deputies from RN, to prevent RN from governing”.
The “republican front” is not new in France, having been effective on other occasions, such as in 2002, when voters of different political persuasions united to defeat Jean-Marie Le Pen, Marine’s father, in a presidential election.
However, the effectiveness of this strategy in 2024 remains uncertain, given the evolution of the French political landscape and Le Pen’s efforts to soften the RN’s image.
EARLY ELECTIONS
France’s system of government is semi-presidential. In this system, the president is directly elected by the citizens to represent the state, while the prime minister represents the government. The premier is appointed by the president and can only be removed from office if Parliament is dissolved, as Macron did on June 9.
The president dissolved the French Parliament and called elections anticipated after the Renaissance was defeated by RN in the elections to the European Parliament. According to Macron, the measure was necessary to allow the French population to choose their rulers.
NOMINATION OF THE PRIME MINISTER
If the efforts of the center and the left are not enough and the right wins the elections, the president, in a non-binding manner, will appoint a prime minister who satisfies the majority of the deputies.
In this scenario, the Jordan Bardella, a lawmaker, is the leading candidate to become France’s next prime minister. By appointing him, Macron, who has about three years left in his term, would have to govern with a prime minister who does not share his policies. The cohabitation of a centrist president and a right-wing prime minister would create a potentially challenging political scenario.
While Macron is known for his pro-European and progressive policies, Bardella is described as a Eurosceptic populist. This combination could result in significant political impasses or, at best, force both sides to compromise on issues crucial to the country.
The president would also have his functions reduced and would no longer control domestic and immigration policies, leading only foreign and defense policies.
If Macron chooses not to appoint the candidate chosen by the majority of parliamentarians, he could face a vote of censure and be removed from office.
Read more:
POSSIBLE CANDIDATES FOR PRIME MINISTER
Read about the possible candidates for the post of Prime Minister of France:
RIGHT: JORDAN BARDELLA, RN
He joined Le Pen’s party at the age of 16. Seven years later, in 2019, he was chosen to lead the RN in the European elections. In 2022, he became president of the party.
At 28 years old, Bardellapresents itself as a potential “Prime Minister of Purchasing Power”, with promises such as reducing VAT on energy and fuel and income tax for young people.
The young politician uses the TikTok to attract voters. He has a profile with more than 1.9 million followers. Opponents criticize his lack of experience and unrealistic economic plans.
CENTER: GABRIEL ATTAL, TOGETHER
Nicknamed “baby Macron”, Attal was appointed prime minister in January this year. At 35, he is the youngest person to hold the post and the country’s first openly gay premier.
Attal entered politics at the age of 17 as a member of the Socialist Party and rose to prominence under Macron. He became widely known after serving as the government’s spokesman during the Covid-19 pandemic. He also served as budget minister and education minister before taking over as the government’s leader.
The current prime minister was appointed to deal with French dissatisfaction with Macron, who is often seen as indifferent to the needs of the people.
LEFT
The left is formed by a broad alliance and has not yet indicated a single name for the post of prime minister. Below are some of the likely nominees.
- JEAN-LUC MÉLENCHON, UNSUBMISSIVE FRANCE – at 72 years old, he has been involved in politics for decades. He ran for president 3 times (2012, 2017 and 2022) and has improved his results in each election. In the last one, he came in 3rd place, behind Macron and Le Pen.
He is described by many as a “far-left” politician. He has proposed tax cuts for the poorest and increased investment, class warfare rhetoric and controversial positions on foreign policy, especially in relation to the war in Gaza; - RAPHAEL GLUCKSMANN, SOCIALIST PARTY – the 44-year-old journalist topped the list of candidates for the European elections in June and won around 14% of the vote.
His party has ruled France for decades but has recently suffered a dramatic decline. He advocates strong European support for Ukraine in its war against Russia; - LAURENT BERGER, TRADE UNIONIST – President of the European Trade Union Confederation and former leader of the French Democratic Confederation of Labour, one of the main trade unions in France. Berger is 55 years old and has a history of opposition to the RN.
He has already said that he does not intend to be prime minister, but his name has been considered as a popular and more moderate alternative to Mélenchon.
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