France returns to the polls today, July 7 after the first round of the early legislative elections which saw a record turnout of 66.7%, never so high since 1981 and about twenty points more than in 2022. An election that saw the triumph of the far-right party Rassemblement National (Rn) and its ally Eric Ciotti with 33.1% of the preferences, in the wake of the success obtained in the European elections of 9 June.
But today, with the polls open until 6 pm in small towns and 8 pm in large cities, turnout could be even higher, even after the record number of proxies deposited to vote and the high turnout of French abroad who have already voted. The election result could not be so in line with the first round, or rather may not give the far right enough votes to form an absolute majority government creating a stalemate in Parliament.
Sanitary cordon against the far right
There are 501 seats still to be decided by a run-offwhile seventy-six deputies have already been elected, including 39 representatives of Rn and its allies. They are instead 224 candidates withdrew after coming in third130 from the left-wing Nouveau Front populaire (NFP) and 82 from French President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble party, aiming to try to prevent the victory of the Rassemblement National.
Almost a fifth will be three-way challenges, the so-called triangular ones, while 409 seats will be decided in a one-on-one challenge. What has been created, therefore, is a real ‘sanitary cordon’ against the far right, to try to prevent the leader of Rn Jordan Bardella from obtaining that absolute majority without which, he declared, he will not lead the government. With the polls closed, on the night of the first round, Macron had immediately hoped for “a great democratic concentration”, which translated into a great common front against the far right. According to the figures, in the first round one voter in three voted for Rn allied with the Republicans. In second place, with 28%, was the left-wing alliance NFP. In third place were Macron’s allies with 21% of the votes.
501 seats still to be assigned
Neither side, however, wants to consider the battle won or lost. The French electoral system distributes the 577 deputies in single-member constituencies, so the percentages of votes do not necessarily translate into an equivalent number of seats in proportional terms. In the first round, only 66 seats were distributed to the candidates who obtained an absolute majority.. Among those who have already secured a seat is far-right leader Marine Le Pen, as well as 38 other party representatives guaranteed seats in the Chamber. The left-wing alliance NFP has obtained 32, thanks in large part to Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise, while the ‘Macronist’ bloc has been guaranteed only two representatives and will try to cushion its defeat.
The risk of riots
Political danger aside, In the immediate aftermath of the vote, the French Interior Ministry fears riots and public order problemsespecially regarding Paris and its surroundings. And that is why 30 thousand police officers and gendarmes were deployed for the second round of the elections, five thousand of them in the capital, fearing street protests especially against the rise of the far right. Yesterday the Minister of the Interior Gerald Darmanin confirmed 51 attacks physical or verbal attacks against candidates, teams or fans during a particularly tense election campaign.
The start of the new legislature is scheduled for July 18the day on which the first plenary session of the new assembly will be held and the new president of Parliament will be elected by secret ballot. On the same day, the political declarations of the groups, their composition and the name of their president must be presented. On Saturday 20 July, the committees will meet for the first time and elect their presidents. The work will continue for “a period of 15 days” from the constitution of the National Assembly, as provided for in Article 12 of the Constitution. This would therefore be a change of program compared to the one that provided for the suspension of parliamentary work on 12 July in view of the Olympic Games in Paris, which will begin on the 26th.
If the far right does not have an absolute majority, the Chamber will have to find new balances. Macron has made it clear that, regardless of the outcome of the vote, he will not resign and will therefore begin a period of ‘cohabitation’ that will last at least a year together with a coalition government, in the best of cases. The French Constitution establishes, in Article 12, that there cannot be a new dissolution of Parliament in a year and the Elysée has made it clear that Macron does not intend to resort to Article 16 which provides for the assumption of exceptional powers to avoid a power vacuum.
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