Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s authoritarian president, faces a watershed moment that will determine the course of his troubled country.
According to the criteria of
On July 28, the leader of the nation that possesses the world’s largest oil reserves — and yet has seen millions of residents flee amid an economic crisis — will face his toughest electoral challenge since taking office in 2013. Polls show a former diplomat named Edmundo González leading by a wide margin.
Gonzalez has the backing of a fierce opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, who has captivated voters by campaigning for him on promises to restore democracy.
Maduro, who for years has overcome his unpopularity by tilting the polls in his favor, could pull off another victory. Political analysts, electoral experts, opposition figures and four former senior Maduro government officials interviewed by The New York Times believe he is likely considering multiple options to retain power.
His government could disqualify Gonzalez, or the parties he represents, they say, eliminating his only serious rival from the race. Or Maduro could allow the vote to go ahead, but suppress participation, confuse voters and end up winning. Or he could cancel or postpone the vote, inventing a crisis as an excuse. Or Maduro could simply fix the vote count.
That happened in 2017, when the country held a vote to select a new political body tasked with rewriting the Constitution. The company that provided the voting technology, Smartmatic, concluded that the result had been manipulated and that Maduro’s government reported at least a million more votes than were cast.
The election will be closely watched by the U.S. government, which has long sought to oust Maduro from power, saying it wants to promote democracy in the region but also seeking a friendly partner in the oil business. In recent months, as hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans have headed north, creating a challenge for President Joseph R. Biden Jr. ahead of his own reelection bid, his administration’s desire to improve economic conditions inside Venezuela has intensified.
Maduro has accused his opponents of planning a “coup” and said at a campaign event that “we are going to win by knockout!” When that happens, he said, his opponents will surely call it fraud.
Maduro, 61, has survived a prolonged economic crisis in which year-over-year inflation soared to 65,000 percent; rounds of nationwide protests; coup and assassination attempts; and an effort in 2019 to install a parallel government in the country.
And it has dodged the brunt of U.S. sanctions by strengthening its ties with Iran, Russia and China and, according to the International Crisis Group, allowing its allies to enrich themselves through drug trafficking and illegal mining.
Experts say that between 3.5 and 5.5 million eligible Venezuelans now live outside the country, up to a quarter of the total electorate of 21 million. Many would likely vote against Maduro, but with huge barriers in place, only 69,000 have been able to register to vote.
If Maduro loses, he could work with Gonzalez to negotiate a way out, some analysts said. The president is wanted in the United States on drug trafficking charges and is under investigation by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity. He would want to go to a country where he would be protected from prosecution.
But Manuel Christopher Figuera, a former director of Venezuela’s national intelligence service who fled to the United States in 2019 after joining a failed coup, said such a scenario is unlikely: “Maduro knows that if he hands over power, although he could negotiate his way out, the rest of this criminal gang would not be able to do so.”
#Venezuela #begins #prepare #elections #experts #contests