07/05/2024 – 16:35
The first Datafolha poll for the mayor of Recife (PE), released this Friday, the 5th, indicates that the current mayor, João Campos (PSB), is leading the electoral race with 75% of voting intentions. The result indicates that the pre-candidate could be reelected in the first round, with a wide margin, if the election were held today.
Next, former federal deputy Daniel Coelho (PSD), supported by governor Raquel Lyra (PSDB), with 7% of intentions, and Gilson Machado (PL), former Minister of Tourism in the Jair Bolsonaro government (PL), with 6%, are tied.
Next come deputy Dani Portela (PSOL), with 3%, and lawyer Tecio Teles (Novo) and Simone Fontana (PSTU), both with 1%.
Datafolha interviewed 616 voters in Recife from July 2 to 4. The margin of error is 4 percentage points, either way, and the confidence level is 95%. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number PE-09910/2024.
To set up the main scenario, the team presented all the names of pre-candidates to the voters from Recife interviewed, but the decision on the candidate for each party will only come from the 20th, with the start of the party conventions.
A second scenario was presented, replacing Dani Portela’s name with Tulio Gadêlha’s, as both form a federation and are in dispute over who will be the head of the ticket. The survey shows that there is no significant change in the results.
Campos remains ahead by a wide margin, with 74% of voting intentions. In second place, there is a technical tie between Coelho, with 8%, Machado, with 5%, and Gadêlha, with 3%. Simone and Teles have 1 percentage point each.
When respondents were asked who they would vote for, but without the name of any of the pre-candidates being mentioned, the current mayor also appeared in first place, with 39% of the voting preferences – and 6% said they would vote for “the current one”. Machado got 2% and Coelho got 1%.
In the spontaneous modality, 40% of those interviewed said they did not know who they would vote for. Other responses totaled 5%, and blank, void and none are 6%.
The survey also measured the rejection rate of the candidates. The most rejected candidate is Machado, with 38%, followed by Teles, with 36%, and Gadelha, with 34%. In this category, respondents could name more than one candidate. The current mayor is the least rejected, with 8% of respondents saying they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
There is still no definition about who will be Campos’ vice president. According to the Column of the Statethe mayor signaled that he should choose former chief of staff Victor Marques (PCdoB) to form his ticket. Another option is former Infrastructure Secretary Marília Dantas (MDB).
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