Venezuela is beginning its most uncertain electoral campaign. The result will be important, because it will determine who receives the mandate to govern the country for the next five years, but what may happen next is even more important. If Chavismo accepts the results of July 28, it would have to abandon a power that has become absolute over time: the so-called Bolivarian revolution, conceived by Hugo Chávez in the late 1990s, controls all the institutions of the State. Many believe that, today, the conditions for a transition that recovers the democratic values of the Republic and accepts the rotation system are not in place. The United States and other countries such as Colombia and Brazil are negotiating against the clock with Nicolás Maduro an agreement in which it is written that they would respect the results in the event that they were unfavorable to him.
For now, according to the most reliable polls, they are. Edmundo González, the opposition’s consensus candidate, leads practically all the polls, in some by a significant margin. Maduro, after a month touring the country, has regained popularity, which has gone from 19% to 25%. According to sources close to Chavismo, the president has also received alarming numbers for his interests in his office, but he still believes he can turn them around. The government has an important network of supporters obtained through the management of social aid, such as the CLAP food boxes. In addition, the opposition does not appear in the local media, it is likely that it does not have witnesses in all the polling stations and it is dispersed among two or three other names that will take votes away from Edmundo.
Something is not going well for Chavismo when Maduro announced two days ago that he is resuming talks with the White House. This has given rise to all kinds of speculation. Some believe that the government is trying to gain time and even postpone the elections. Others believe that it is seeking a negotiated solution and a kind of amnesty for its leaders. Jorge Rodríguez, Maduro’s political operator, met on Wednesday by video call with representatives of Joe Biden’s government and at the end made a statement in which he did not give many concrete details of what was discussed. If the talks are so preliminary, it is very difficult to think that they could have any impact on the day of the vote. In parallel, the president of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, is trying to get the parties to sign a document in which they commit to recognize the results and not persecute the defeated. Putting all these pieces together is a real diplomatic challenge for all those involved. The fate of a nation is at stake.
In a hypothetical case that Chavismo were willing to share power with another actor, a period of uncertainty would open up. The most pessimistic – or realistic – believe that this will not happen under any circumstances. Why would the government leave, what would it gain? It would be a way of pacifying the country, which has been living in permanent tension for 25 years: the parties are in conflict and maintain irreconcilable positions. Along the way, the country has suffered a brutal economic crisis, which has led to the emigration of seven million people. We are talking about the largest exodus in the history of Latin America. Chavismo has weakened the opposition with the arrest of leaders, the disqualification of its most popular figures – such as María Corina Machado, who moves the masses, but who has had to yield her candidacy to Edmundo – which has reduced its margin of action to a minimum, more typical of an authoritarian environment. Added to this are the major mistakes made by the opposition, which has spent years divided.
If there were a change in the Miraflores Palace, the base of operations for Venezuelan presidents, Edmundo González would have a gigantic mission ahead of him. From July to January, Maduro would continue to preside over the country: during that period, anything could happen. The Assembly, where Chavismo has an overwhelming majority, would have one more year of mandate. And he would have to navigate between institutions co-opted by Chavismo, the most important of which is the Army, where a revolutionary mentality prevails, something really surprising if one takes into account the military history of the region. Petro is trying to make Maduro see, according to sources consulted, that leaving power for a while could serve Chavismo to restructure itself in the opposition and later return to Miraflores in a context of political normality similar to that of other countries in the area. Venezuela would abandon its status as a pariah among the international community.
Venezuelans, according to the polls, are exhausted for these elections. Chavez’s revolutionary project experienced peaks of prosperity with the oil boom in early 2000, but then plummeted and the problems worsened after his death, which gave way to the Maduro era. The daily shortage is a burden that has caused Chavismo to lose many followers. Experts estimate that they represent 20% of the population, thanks to the hundreds of thousands of public employees placed there by their militancy and popular sectors that are still very ideologized. Maria Corina Machado and Edmundo, who until yesterday was unknown, have picked up on the discontent and are a real electoral threat for Maduro. The question remains as to whether the president would leave through the Miraflores gate in the event of a defeat. There are 24 days left until the vote, but the answer to that question is on everyone’s mind right now.
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