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The French election is stirring up concerns. The election results could also have consequences for Ukraine and NATO: One expert expects “consequences”.
Berlin/Munich – Ukrainian political scientist Mykola Bielieskow called it “a miracle” that his country survived the months-long wait for US aid during the winter months: there was a painful lack of ammunition and equipment on the front lines. But Ukraine continues to depend on continuous support from the West. And in this respect there is new cause for concern.
Concerns ahead of France’s runoff election: Macron, a key supporter of Ukraine, is in jeopardy
A known uncertainty factor is the possible new (and old) US President Donald Trump. There are others in Europe. Viktor Orbán’s Hungary, for example, is repeatedly thwarting EU aid packages in the Ukraine war. At the weekend (6/7 July), a staunch supporter of Kiev could lose parts of its power base: France is electing a new parliament. And success seems to be a long-standing, very Russia-friendly country. National Rally (RN) by Marine Le Pen tangible.
What if the RN takes over the majority with the outcome of the run-off election? Or the left-wing alliance of the “Popular Front”? Ronja Kempin, an expert on France and European security policy, does not expect a “major rift” in Paris, as she IPPEN.MEDIA says. However, domestic political conflicts or back and forth are to be expected – and damage to France’s image as a reliable partner. The latter could play into Vladimir Putin’s Russia’s hands. In the long term, Le Pen will also be difficult to predict, warns the expert from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
French election and the Ukraine war: Right against ground troops – and “SCALP”
If Macron – as expected – loses his majority options in parliament, there will “in any case be an impact on French security and defence policy”, says Kempin. The same applies to the EU’s security policy and the NATOBoth camps, the hard-right RN and the left-wing “Popular Front”, stand for a different course than Macron. The hastily forged Popular Front includes the extreme left-wing “La France Insoumise”. The political scientist describes the party as “very pro-Russia”. However, the alliance has not yet made any explicit statements about supporting Ukraine.
The RN is different. The party around Le Pen and its crown prince Bardella has committed to continuing the aid – but has also drawn red lines. “One for the delivery of long-range missiles, a second for the deployment of ground troops,” as Kempin says. Both are quite explosive: Macron himself has been thinking aloud for weeks about French soldiers training in Ukraine. And France is already supplying long-range weapons: the cruise missile known as “SCALP” has already brought Ukraine military successes – and supplies are not expected to dry up.
But what if Macron says “hiya” and the new government – elected by parliament – says “ha ha”? Macron actually has the upper hand. But an RN Prime Minister Bardella, together with a majority in the National Assembly, could cause a lot of uncertainty.
Macron’s call for ground troops in the Ukraine war: Veto would be possible – “The president would be embarrassed”
“Even in a cohabitation government, the prerogative for security and defense policy would lie with the President of the Republic, i.e. Macron,” explains Kempin. Macron is the commander-in-chief: “The French President can send his country’s armed forces into a conflict at any time with a simple snap of his fingers.” However, Parliament has won the right to decide on a deployment after four weeks. And what is otherwise a rather formal act in France, which is used to stable majorities, could now mutate into a conflict.
“Parliament will probably use its options in a completely different way,” the expert speculates. It could try to “embarrass” Macron, for example by revoking a deployment of soldiers: “Then the president would be embarrassed.” Kempin warns: “Of course, this would also have an impact on France’s reliability as an ally in NATO and as the strongest military power in the European Union. That would be a sign of unreliability.” Scientific surveys show, by the way, that France is an important donor to Ukraine in Europe – but given its size, not one of the most determined.
NATO trouble in the Ukraine war? Le Pen would probably change course in the long term – Trump remains an unknown
A Le Pen majority or even presidency could also have long-term consequences for NATO, Kempin suggests in an interview with IPPEN.MEDIA Historically, France not only has a special position in the alliance – but also a special relationship with NATO: Since the experiences in the Second World War, when the country was dependent on help from the USA, France has always emphasized national sovereignty. The RN will bring this even more to the fore, says Kempin. It will be less about being a reliable partner, but about pursuing national interests.
“I don’t expect France to take the first step and leave NATO under the Rassemblement National,” says the expert. Le Pen probably wants to be careful first of all “not to scare off partners, not to scare off the world and not to scare off the population.” Kempin adds: “But it could of course be that at some point an agreement will be reached with Trump to restructure NATO or something similar. But that is a long way off – because that is the next unknown.”
In any case, turbulent times are to be expected: here an RN that wants to present “successes” to the voters – there the president who wants to “show up” the right in order to block Marine Le Pen’s path to the presidency in 2027. “This is a situation that the country has never had before – and in which both sides will try to get the maximum capital for themselves.” (fn)
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