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Historic, monumental, unprecedented: commentators are running out of superlatives to describe Labour’s election victory in Great Britain. But the future Prime Minister still has the biggest challenge ahead of him.
London – If you have a difficult task ahead of you, you have to climb a mountain. “We have a mountain to climb”: Keir Starmer has repeatedly stressed this since he took over the leadership of the British Labour Party. Now his Social Democrats have not just reached any mountain peak. “He has just conquered Everest and launched into space,” is how the well-known reporter Beth Rigby from Sky News describes the result of the British parliamentary election.
The keys to the famous black door at number 10 in Downing Street will be handed back to Labour after 14 years of conservative government. Around midday on Friday, King Charles III, as head of state, is expected to officially commission party leader Starmer to form a government. The 61-year-old will be able to rule.
According to initial forecasts, the Social Democrats will have 410 of the 650 MPs in Parliament – more than twice as many as the Conservatives had in 2019 under then Prime Minister Boris Johnson. “Labour will have enough seats to form the strongest opposition faction itself,” jokes journalist Iain Dale.
The political situation in the United Kingdom is upside down. The Conservative Party of the current Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has suffered a devastating defeat: According to forecasts, the group will shrink to 131 members – fewer than ever before and barely more than a third of the previous seats. This will in all probability cost Sunak his position as chairman, and several candidates for his top post are being discussed within the party.
How large the Labour majority will ultimately be, whether 20 or 200 seats, does not matter in the British parliamentary system. But of course it makes governing easier for Starmer. The smaller the lead, the greater the risk of being blackmailed by troublemakers in his own ranks on contentious issues. For Starmer, the way seems clear to implement his self-declared ambition and lead Britain through a “decade of national renewal”.
In fact, the huge majority could gloss over the risks for the prime minister-designate. “Labour is facing massive political challenges and is supported by a coalition in the electorate that is very broad but very superficial,” says political scientist Anand Menon of King’s College London. “So it’s easy to see what dangers arise.”
Broad currents within the Labour Party
First of all, Starmer has to keep all the currents within the party happy. Labour cannot simply be equated with its German sister party, the SPD. In Germany, if one were to attempt a comparison, the spectrum would range from the Left Party to the more conservative-oriented Seeheimer Circle in the SPD.
The left wing around former party leader Jeremy Corbyn, who suffered a crushing defeat to then Conservative Prime Minister Johnson in 2019 and was subsequently pushed out of the party by Starmer, is likely to rebel if Labour moves too far into the political centre. The Conservatives have made room for this with their strong right-wing course in recent years.
Above all, Starmer must now convince the British people who voted for Labour not because of him, but to punish the Conservatives after 14 years of chaos, scandals and economic stagnation. It was not Labour that was elected, the Tories were voted out, said Professor John Curtice of the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow, probably the best-known pollster in the country, even before the forecast was made.
Large majority despite relatively few votes
In the British majority voting system, only the winner of a constituency makes it into the House of Commons. Votes for the losing candidates have no effect. In reality, however, it is quite close: although Labour is likely to achieve a two-thirds majority in the House of Commons, the party probably received well under 50 percent of the vote.
This is also reflected in the results of the smaller parties. According to forecasts, the Liberal Democrats will be able to increase the number of their seats fivefold, while the right-wing populists from Reform UK will have 13 MPs straight away – significantly more than expected. “In government, Labour will have to work hard to retain the voters who voted for Starmer in 2024. Because they didn’t vote for Labour, they wanted to get rid of the Tories,” comments Sky News reporter Rigby.
Huge challenges
That will be difficult. The country is facing enormous challenges. The NHS is in ruins, there is far too little housing, the dilapidated prisons are overcrowded, there is an acute shortage of skilled workers, Brexit is still not over, and trust in politics has been shaken. The list goes on and on.
But there is actually no money to finance improvements and to encourage necessary investments. Labour wants to cut tax breaks for private schools, close tax loopholes for wealthy foreigners and increase the excess profit tax for energy companies. But nothing is to change for private households, which are already suffering from the highest tax burden in decades. After the first summit, there are still many more mountains to climb for Starmer and Labour. dpa
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