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The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is establishing itself as an anti-Western bloc. Dictators such as Putin and Xi are meeting at the summit in Kazakhstan. But a vision for the future is missing.
In the past, the summits of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization took place far away from the world public. China, Russia and the Central Asian states have been cooperating in the alliance since 2001 in the fight against the “three evils”: terrorism, separatism and extremism. When on Thursday, Russia’s President Wladimir PutinHowever, when China’s head of state Xi Jinping, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iranian interim President Mohammad Mokhber met in Kazakhstan’s capital Astana, the world was watching. The organisation – the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) – has developed into a veritable anti-Western bloc, in which authoritarian rulers in particular meet.
And the group’s anti-Western tone is increasing. In Astana, Xi called on SCO members to fend off “external interference.” In his speech, broadcast by state broadcaster CCTV, he used indirect language to warn of the risks of US protectionism. The SCO also accepted Belarus, which is ostracized in Western Europe as a vassal of Russia, as a new member, presumably at Putin’s urging.
Shanghai Organization: Ten members with 40 percent of the world population
The organization now has ten member states, which together account for around 40 percent of the world’s population and a quarter of global economic output. In addition to Russia, China and the five Central Asian states, India, Pakistan and Iran are now also members of the SCO. In addition, there are a number of dialogue partners from the Middle East such as Saudi Arabia, as well as Mongolia and Afghanistan as observers.
The SCO is thus the second bloc alongside the emerging countries group BRICS to become a geopolitical rival of the West. The BRICS, which previously included Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, admitted four new states, including Iran, in early 2024. In Astana, Xi said he supported Kazakhstan’s admission into the BRICS.
Europe fears Turkish accession
As far as the SCO is concerned, the accession of the NATO-member Turkey to an anti-Western alliance is problematic for Europe. Erdogan has already expressed interest in SCO membership; his presence in Astana shows how serious he is. Economically, his country is already docking there: in the past five years, Turkish exports to the SCO states have increased by 85 percent. In his bilateral talks with Putin on Wednesday, however, Erdogan was initially rebuffed; the Russian president rejected a Turkish offer of mediation for the Ukraine War away.
Xi and Putin demonstrate cooperation and finally want to build pipeline
Putin prefers to rely on China’s so-called “pro-Russian neutrality”. He also met with Xi Jinping on Wednesday; the meeting produced the usual statements about flourishing relations. According to Novak, Putin and Xi have instructed their relevant state-owned companies to agree on the delivery conditions for the “Power of Siberia 2” gas pipeline “as soon as possible,” according to the Russian news agency Interfax reported. China had so far kept Russia waiting on the project.
Beijing and Moscow are the driving forces of the SCO. But the real strong power is China; Russia is distracted by the war in Ukraine – and China is using this to expand its presence in Moscow’s backyard of Central Asia. In 2023, the People’s Republic overtook Russia as the largest trading partner of the host Kazakhstan.
China is the strongest power in the Shanghai Organization
So far, the SCO has managed to alarm the West, but not to create a common vision. The smaller members do not want to replace the US supremacy with the hegemony of China and Russia. “All of the SCO’s activities are limited by the fact that it is de facto a club with three members – China, India and Russia – each of which has its own agenda and is only willing to cooperate to a certain extent,” says Italian economics professor Enrico Colombatto from the University of Turin.
Therefore, economic cooperation within the SCO is also difficult, writes ColombattoChina is the only technological superpower, India could perhaps become one. “Russia’s role is more that of a buyer or perhaps imitator than that of a major developer.” Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi does not seem to take the SCO particularly seriously either: He skipped the summit and sent his foreign minister. Instead, he will travel to Russia next week for a bilateral meeting with Vladimir Putin.
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