British voters begin voting in elections that could change the political history of the country | El Diario Vasco

The United Kingdom is starting to vote in what could be a historic election. Polling stations in 650 constituencies in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales have already opened their doors and will remain open until 10pm (one hour later in Spain). The results will not be known until early next morning, although shortly after the polls close the BBC will publish its traditional poll.

There are actually three television networks that broadcast their exit polls at rapid speed. In the last five general elections, they have been extremely accurate, determining the seats of the winning party within four seats. A feat when dealing with a House of 650 representatives. The reason for this accuracy is due to a change in the statistical calculation of the polls introduced at the beginning of this century. The analysts combine not only the positions obtained in different pre-established electoral centres as a representative sample, but also the changes observed with respect to previous elections.

Even so, the margin of error allowed for in these polls is 20 seats. This is important if the parties are fairly evenly matched, but of little importance in a case like this Thursday’s, in which everything points to Labour winning a large majority. But then there is always the factor of luck and the imprecision of undecided and ‘silent’ voters.

The media are already in the respective constituencies where the outgoing Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, and the Labour leader, Keir Starmer, are voting. The former has been an early bird and has already voted with his wife in Richmond and Northallerton, in Yorkshire, while the latter is in the London borough of Holborn and St Pancras.

This morning it was revealed that Sunak would be willing to temporarily continue as leader of the Conservatives even in the most likely case that his party suffers a disaster in these elections. Until now it was almost certain that the still ‘premier’ would resign from office immediately. Although he has assured that he would occupy his seat in the opposition in the next legislature, another theory that has gained consistency is that he would return to the United States to continue with his university teaching.

However, ministers have asked him to remain at the head of the Tories until at least September in order to ensure an orderly transition within the party. Several of his cabinet members – up to sixteen of the twenty-six ministers in a poll on Wednesday – already see themselves out of even winning a seat and a defeat at the polls is expected to promote serious internal movements. Some senior officials have already warned their coreligionists that “they will have to read” the defeat, “learn from it” and promote changes without letting themselves get carried away by nerves.

In total, 47 million Britons are called to the polls today, although a significant number have already voted by post. In a first, this is the first general election where citizens have to show ID. This is not the case as in the local elections in May, when former Prime Minister Boris Johnson was unable to vote because he forgot to do so.

The electoral system is also in keeping with the tradition of voting on Thursday, which has been in place since 1931. This is a working day that historically coincided with the local flea market, which made it easier for citizens to go to the polling stations while shopping for decades. There are also other, more idle motivations: the authorities considered setting the date on Friday or Sunday, but there was a much greater chance that citizens would prefer a pint of beer to going to the polls.

There is also a practical side to the Thursday election. The results are known on Friday and the new prime minister has the weekend to organise his incoming cabinet so that it can be up and running on Monday or during the next working day. However, there is a popular movement in favour of changing this tradition, which has been law for thirteen years, and adjusting the holding of the elections to suit most countries, i.e. on Sunday.

There is no doubt that the United Kingdom is facing an event of such importance that it could make history in British politics. The latest poll released yesterday reveals that Labour would obtain a crushing victory, with more than 400 seats, some 202 more than the absolute majority, while the Tories would collapse and lose up to 70% of seats. After 14 years in power, the Conservative Party could find itself not only relegated to the opposition but also facing an internal crisis with unpredictable consequences. It remains to be seen what will happen to the party of Neil Farage, the populist promoter of Brexit who is running with his party Reform UK. He began his political career as a member of the Conservative Party and now only aspires to snatch as many votes as possible from it.