Labour prepares for a hard landing in UK government

British election polls predict a victory for the Labour Party candidate, Keir Starmer, on Thursday, with an even greater number of seats than Tony Blair’s historic triumph in 1997. The general feeling in the United Kingdom, however, suggests that the enthusiasm of citizens at the end of the conservative cycle and the change of government will not be as intense as when New Labour came to power.

During his four years at the head of the main opposition party, Starmer has had a comparative advantage: his image of rigor, responsibility and seriousness compared to the caricature histrionics of Boris Johnson or the irresponsible neo-conservative fanaticism of Liz Truss.

In exchange, on his journey to the centre, to distance himself from the deep turn to the left imposed by his predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn, and not to frighten the middle classes, the Labour candidate has decided to put the file of Pending issues and turn the key seven times. At the risk of all of them returning with a vengeance.

First, Brexit. Starmer promises lukewarm improvements in relations with the EU, without even hinting at a return to the club of the Twenty-Seven, or to its internal market and common customs area. There is no talk of restoring the free movement of citizens.

Taxes: Labour is committed to not raising corporate or income tax, or VAT. At most, it has announced that it will end the privileged tax regime for multimillionaires who live in London but maintain their official residence elsewhere in the world. And it will raise, with figures yet to be specified, the tax on private capital gains. Experts say that such a timid tax policy does not seem to help finance the grand promises of “national renewal” that Starmer has raised.

“Like the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, Labour remains mired in a conspiracy of silence about the challenges it faces. And these challenges are clearly on the horizon,” warns Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies think tank. “The usual post-election reaction of surprise and shock at the state of the public finances will not be the only remedy.”

A similar problem will arise with immigration. The Labour candidate has promised to scrap Rishi Sunak’s plan for deportations to Rwanda altogether, which never got off the ground. And he announces the creation of a Joint Border Control Command to crack down on the flow of boats in the English Channel. But he is unable to say what he will do with asylum seekers already living in overcrowded conditions on the so-called floating prison in the UK. Bibby Stockholm, the huge vessel used by the Government to house the new arrivals. And it faces forecasts of up to 40,000 more people on the English coast this year.

“Instead of confronting the big arguments and trying to win them out on the basis of arguments, the Labour Party has done everything possible to close them down in a false way. And that means the ground has been adequately prepared,” writes the writer, historian and journalist Andrew Marr in the weekly The New Statesman.

The commitment to growth

Political transitions in the United Kingdom are a quick ceremony. Sunak will most likely travel to Buckingham Palace on Friday, if the Conservatives are defeated, to present his resignation to King Charles III. Starmer will then go there to receive the monarch’s order to form a new government. And hours later he will appear before the media in front of the door of number 10 Downing Street to give his first speech to the nation.

His acquaintances and allies have nicknamed him No Drama Starmer (Starmer the undramatic, pronounced with an exaggerated English accent, New Drama This Is), because of his aversion to turning politics into a permanent spectacle. It is very likely that the central message of his inaugural speech as prime minister will be the need to roll up one’s sleeves and get to work.

The Labour Party has won five national missionsfor which he wants to set up inter-ministerial commissions to give shape as soon as possible: economic growth, reform of the National Health Service (NHS), improvements to the police and penal system to achieve safer streets, a national energy company – Great British Energy – based on affordable renewables and the improvement of life opportunities for all citizens.

On July 17, Charles III will pronounce in Parliament the King’s Speechthe ceremony in which the head of state presents as his own all the policies that the Government wants to implement in the new legislature. A day later, everything suggests that Starmer will attend the fourth summit of the European Political Community as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, at Blenheim Palace, an imposing building where Winston Churchill spent his childhood, and where the new British leader will have the opportunity to begin to demonstrate his attitude and his willingness to interact with the other European leaders.

Starmer’s commitment to growth is based on rigorous planning by a team of professionals and senior civil servants who have been preparing for the landing for months and are led by Sue Gray, the permanent deputy secretary of Boris Johnson’s Cabinet who wrote the devastating incriminating report on the parties banned in Downing Street during the pandemic. As chief of staff to the Labour leader, she has prepared a list of the problems that the new government will face during the first 100 days, and the possible responses. Civil servants who will immediately demand salary increases and threaten new strikes. Property owners who will put their foot down in the face of reforms in urban planning laws. Or an unexpected increase in the flow of irregular immigration.

“If the country votes for change and supports Labour, we will get to work immediately and take the first steps towards that change,” Starmer promised in his final campaign message on Wednesday. “Economic stability, improved public health with 40,000 extra appointments every week and a new Joint Border Security Command to end the boat crisis. More energy security, to lower family bills, another 6,500 teachers in our schools, and a tough line against crime,” he announced.

The Labour Party will have little time for celebration, aware of a double reality that is just as stark: its foreseeable victory is the result of the majority of the British people’s will to destroy the conservative legacy. The task of building it will fall exclusively, through the electoral result, to Starmer’s new team. And its good execution will depend on whether the populist right-wing monster of Nigel Farage and the Reform UK party, the fruit of the errors of 14 years of mandate, will be defeated. torydo not grow back with renewed strength.

Follow all the international information at Facebook and Xor in our weekly newsletter.

_