Joe Biden is not retiring. The president of the United States, protagonist of a disastrous TV confrontation with Donald Trump, does not throw in the towel: “I can do this job, otherwise I wouldn’t run.” The message the day after, at a rally in North Carolina, does not extinguish the debate: the doubts about the 81-year-old president increase and for many in the Dem universe they have become certainties.
“There’s a sense of shock at the way it appeared at the beginning of the debate, for the tone of his voice, for how he seemed a little disoriented” is the lucid, and merciless, judgment of the performance of Joe Biden in last night’s debate with Donald Trumpgiven by David Axelrod, Barack Obama’s former strategist, one of the Democrats who for months has been raising doubts and concerns about the president’s age being too advanced for re-election.
“There will be discussions about whether it should continueI don’t know if they will lead to anything, but they will be there”, he adds bluntly, interviewed by CNN, giving voice to what many Democrats, in true panic mode, are thinking after having seen the 81-year-old in obvious difficulty more than once during the debate. Others express even harsher judgments, hiding behind anonymity: “It was like seeing a boxing champion enter the ring who is too old and at a time when he should be throwing in the towel.“, a Democratic congressman told NBCnews, expressing his belief that Biden should withdraw. “The time has come to have an open convention and a new candidate”, echoes another dem.
In short, last night’s debate seems to have broken a taboo, that of Biden’s withdrawal, even if officially the party leaders continue to declare support for the president’s re-election race. Starting with one of the names considered most likely to enter the field at the last minute, the governor of California, Gavin Newsom, who told reporters that the party “could not be more united around Biden”.
The scenario of Biden’s step back
The feeling recorded behind closed doors in the Democratic House is very different, where many experienced the 90 minutes of Biden speaking in a hoarse voice, too low, as a “nightmare”, and at times seeming to lose the thread of the conversation, so much so that midway through the debate his staff tried to take cover by saying that the president had a cold.
So that now we are thinking of the unthinkable, the change of candidate at the conventionsomething no national party has done in modern times and which the party’s own rules make extremely difficult. A change of candidate would be virtually impossible without Biden’s consent, and any coup attempt against him during the convention – which will take place from August 19th to 22nd in Chicago – could split the party, provoking an outcry from delegates elected during the primaries, 99% of whom are loyal to Biden.
“Only he can decide whether he wants to continue.“, acknowledges, referring to Biden, Axelrod, and a crucial role in convincing the president, who until now appeared absolutely against the idea of giving up a second mandate, First Lady Jill might have it: “She could also deny the evidence of how bad things are – writes the Daily Beast – but she doesn’t seem like a wife who always agrees with her husband, unlike the last presidential family – she adds referring to the Trump who could return after the White House elections – the Bidens appear to have a marriage built on mutual respect and admiration.”
The Republicans are betting on Michelle taking the field
It was therefore established that the only plausible scenario could be that of Biden deciding to take a step back, the question of plan B would therefore arise, for the choice of an alternative candidate. In recent months, Politico has already envisaged, in a completely hypothetical way, the evolution of such a plan, hypothesizing a step backwards by Biden who, having concluded the primaries victorious on 4 June, could retain a role as kingmaker, having the control of the delegates, in the weeks preceding the convention, when a “free all” situation would arise among the Dems.
As for the possible new candidate, the thorniest issue is the fact that the most obvious name is also the most unlikely, that of Vice President Kamala Harrisconfirmed in the ticket even if she certainly did not shine during the first term, with popularity rates even lower than those of Biden, below 40%. The other names circulating are the names of the president’s loyalists, such as Newsom – who some say tested the waters with a “shadow campaign” for the White House last year but is now working on Biden’s re-election – and fellow Illinois governor J.B. Pritzker.
Another very possible name would be that of Gretchen Whitmer, governor of Michigan, a great ally of Biden, so much so as to be vice president of his campaign, and an enemy of Trump, who gained great popularity during the clash with the state’s far right during the pandemic. There are other names circulating, including the one that could really give the Democrats hope Michelle Obamathe still very popular former first lady who for years has however continued to categorically deny any intention of getting involved in politics.
After the enormous success of her autobiographies, which she presented around the world on a rockstar tour, Michelle Obama is now also busy with her husband in a new career as film and television producers. The rumors of her possible entry into the field at the last minute – which curiously are circulated insistently by Republicans, in particular Trumpists, who regularly reveal a secret plan by the Democrats to get Michelle to the White House – were fueled by the fact that the former first lady in an interview at the beginning of the year said she was “terrified of what could happen in the next election”. The rumors, meanwhile, describe Michelle Obama as distant from Biden’s campaign: relations between the former first lady and the president’s family have been cold for years, thanks to the friendship that binds Mrs Obama to the ex-wife of Hunter Biden, son of Joe.
In favor of the president, meanwhile, Barack Obama takes sides with a post on X. “Bad nights in debates happen. Believe me, I know. But this election still represents a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary people all his life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth, He knows right from wrong and will be straight with the American people and someone who openly lies for their own benefit. Last night the situation did not change, and that is why the stakes are so high in November “.
Unable to participate in the elections?
There would then be another, much more chaotic, scenario, one in which Biden does not take a step back, is named candidate at the convention but then for some reason is unable to participate in the elections. What would happen? The rules of the convention provide that in the event of “the death, resignation or incapacity” of the candidate, the president of the party must “communicate it to the Democratic leadership of Congress, the Association of Democratic Governors and the members of the Democratic National Committee” who will have to choose a new candidate.
They could choose Harris – who in the meantime would have been confirmed as the candidate for vice president – and therefore they would then have to designate a new veep. Such a delayed exit from the scene by Biden would be not only a political but also a logistical nightmare for the states, some of which begin to send the ballots for the military to vote abroad a few weeks after the convention, and shortly afterwards they also start the vote by mail or in advance for American voters. Minnesota and South Dakota, for example, begin early voting on September 20.
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