There NATO only has two or three years to prepare before Russia regains the ability to launch an attack conventional against the Alliance. This was underlined by head of the Norwegian Armed Forces, General Eirik Kristoffersenin what is only thelatest in a series of warnings issued by militaries and Western leaders about the threat from Moscow and on the Alliance’s current lack of preparedness.
“At a certain point someone said it will take 10 years, but I think we are back to less than 10 years because of the industrial base that now works in Russia” Kristoffersen said, quoted by Sky News. “It will take time, which gives us a window of time in the next two or three years to rebuild our forces, to replenish our reserves while we support Ukraine,” he added .
Norway has been a member of NATO since its founding in 1949. The Scandinavian nation has increased defense spending since the start of the war in Ukraine and aims to reach the 2% of GDP threshold in 2024, with a further increase of 2%, 7% of GDP by 2030.
Ukraine, Russia and NATO, a plan with US soldiers: the scenario
Meanwhile, according to The Telegraph, NATO is developing a plan to quickly deploy American troops in Europe if a possible escalation were to lead to a head-on clash between the Alliance and Russia. The American soldiers would notably arrive at Dutch ports, with Rotterdam the focus of the operation, before being transferred by train to Germany and Poland. This is the scenario outlined by the newspaper in a crucial phase of the conflict in Ukraine. Kiev, after the green light from numerous Western countries, began hitting military targets on Russian territory with weapons supplied by its partners. In particular, in the last few hours Ukrainian forces have used American Hi-mars to destroy an S-300 missile system.
If the ports of northern Europe were not accessible or were targeted by Russian attacks, plan B would be adopted: according to the British newspaper, US soldiers would land in the ports of Italy, Greece and Turkey. Then, off to train transfers through Bulgaria, Romania and the Balkans. In essence, the soldiers would travel quickly towards the eastern front, following itineraries not affected by border controls or forced stops.
If Putin attacks there is no defense in the East: the worrying report
Europe is vulnerable and exposed to the East and NATO may not be able to defend it adequately. This is the result of a report released by the media on May 30th, with the Atlantic Alliance’s internal calculations highlighting the extent of its vulnerabilities. Russia’s war against Ukraine has underlined the importance of air defense, with Kiev pleading with the West for additional systems and rockets to protect its cities, troops and energy grid from daily bombing.
However, according to sources familiar with the confidential defense plans drawn up last year cited by the “Financial Times”, NATO member states are able to provide less than 5% of the air defense capabilities deemed necessary to protect their members in Central and Eastern Europe from a full-scale attack. A senior NATO diplomat said that the ability to defend against missiles and air strikes was “an important part of the plan to defend Eastern Europe from an invasion” and that we currently “do not have such capabilities”.
Some European leaders and military officials have warned that by the end of the decade Russia could have the capability to attack a member state of NATO.
As part of a defense review last year, the British government identified the “challenge of protecting… from attack from the air” as the most urgent for 30 years.Russia’s intense military campaign in Ukrainecharacterized by the massive use of Soviet-era missiles, drones and glide bombs, it accentuated the need for NATO members to increase defense spending after decades of military budget reductions.
The failure to supply additional air defense equipment to Ukraine has highlighted the limited supplies of these expensive and slow-producing systems. To address this deficiency, several overlapping initiatives have been launched. Last year, the Germany launched the Sky Shield initiative with more than a dozen other EU countries to develop a shared air defense system based on US and Israeli technologies. However, the France he publicly criticized the proposal and put forward an alternative concept supported by fewer allies.
In recent weeks, Poland and Greece have asked the European Commission to contribute to the development and financing of a pan-European air defense system, a proposal welcomed by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
Some EU capitals have proposed increasing common debt to finance defense projects. The proliferation of long-range attack drones, such as those used by Russia in Ukraine, has further heightened concerns.
Meanwhile, the general secretary Jens Stoltenberg, speaking at the NATO Parliamentary Assembly in Sofia last week, underlined the need for a stronger institutionalized structure for support, highlighting that voluntary, short-term announcements are not sufficient in the long term. Stoltenberg hoped that the Allies could agree on a multi-year financial commitment, as Ukraine needs predictability to plan, invest and secure the forces necessary to defend itself from Russian invaders and to prevent future aggression.
NATO and the European Union have worked closely together to provide unprecedented military, economic and financial support to Ukraine. Stoltenberg emphasized the need to step up the delivery of munitions and advanced air defense systems, such as Patriot systems. Ahead of the Washington Summit, NATO is drawing up plans to further coordinate the supply of equipment and training, supported by a financial commitment. Stoltenberg stressed the importance of avoiding gaps and delays, providing predictable and responsible long-term support for Ukraine to prevail as a sovereign and independent nation.
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