In recent years Mexico captured the attention of international investors thanks to your geographical position and to the competitive advantages offered within the framework of the relocation of companies.
However, recent results indicate that, despite the investment flowthe impact on the economic growth has been limited.
According to Mexico organization How are we going?directed by Sofía Ramírez Aguilar, the mexican economy registered a meager progress of 0.3% in it first quarter of 2024.
This performance is far from the expectations generated by the nearshoringshowing that the mere arrival of capital It is not enough to trigger robust and sustained growth.
The contraction of the construction (-0.7% from January to March) and the fall in manufacturing industries for two consecutive quarters they highlight the difficulties facing the country.
The sector of constructiondespite its reactivation promoted by megaprojects and needs derived from nearshoringhas only managed to be 4% above the peak reached in the third quarter of 2015.
This data indicates that the infrastructure It is not developing at the pace necessary to support more dynamic economic growth.
Furthermore, GDP per capita has not managed to recover the levels of 2017, reflecting demographic growth not accompanied by a proportional increase in income.
This suggests that current investments are not generating enough jobs and salaries to improve the quality of life of the Mexican population.
The guarantee of electricity supply is a critical factor: without a robust and reliable energy infrastructure, industrial and technological development is severely limited.
The development of productive capacities in the south of the country is a pending issue that could more equitably redistribute the benefits of economic growth.
This traditionally lagging region needs specific investments in education, infrastructure and technology to fully integrate into the national economy.
Labor informality is another significant obstacle. Reducing informality would not only expand the tax base, but would also improve working conditions and social security for millions of workers.
This, in turn, could translate into increased tax revenue which, if managed responsibly and efficiently, could increase access to infrastructure and basic services for a greater part of the population.
The combination of legal certainty, adequate energy supply, balanced regional development and labor market formalization is essential to create an environment conducive to sustained and inclusive economic growth.
ASARCO, COMPANY UNDER THE CONTROL OF GROUP Mexico, wants to reactivate its copper smelter in the United States due to high metal prices. It is a timely and necessary move. As the country faces a critical shortage of smelting capacity, the restart of the Hayden plant and operations in Texas could partially alleviate this pressure. However, this movement promoted by Germán Larrea’s forces also highlights the dependence of our trading partner on foreign actors to maintain their essential supply chains.
DESPITE THE apparent post-Covid-19 economic recovery, GDP per capita in Mexico remains stagnant, reflecting levels similar to those of 2017. This shows insufficient growth to compensate for the demographic increase, which poses serious challenges for the well-being of the population. population. The government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador forecasts 3% growth, but this optimism does not address the deep causes of the stagnation.
THE COMPETITION TO acquire Terrafina has intensified, and Fibra Uno, the largest real estate trust in Mexico, put on the table an offer that could change the panorama of the country’s real estate industrial sector. The proposal from the team of Moisés El-Mann and Gonzalo Robina, which proposes merging portfolios with the assets of Alberto Chretin’s company, offers a premium of 24.7% over the current market price. However, the process is not free of complexities, since other offers, such as Héctor Ibarzabal’s Fibra Prologis, also seek to consolidate.
THE INFLUX OF foreign investment in Mexico, which reached 8,928 million dollars between January and March, contrasts with the outflow of national capital, a worrying sign on the eve of the presidential elections. Although the Bank of Mexico celebrated this increase, the reality is that much of this capital is volatile and can leave quickly, destabilizing the economy. These swallow capitals, attracted by high interest rates, do not compensate for the outflow of national investments and could cause exchange volatility.
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