Beyond the noise and propaganda, no one tells lies in the hard circle of each of the campaigns, not even in the Palace. Their opinion studies, more intensive and profound than those they disseminate to the public, advance complex scenarios for the day after the gigantic election next Sunday.
A more robust registry, projections of citizen participation above historical averages and the very numerous candidates for coalition, on both sides of the race, outline a clash virtually between two unique blocs in the most important spaces, particularly the Presidency , the federal Congress, the head of government of Mexico City and the governorships that will be more competitive.
These final projections on which the strategies are drawn up for the precise day of the voting, foresee a triumph for Claudia Sheinbaum, presidential candidate of the ruling party, but with a much fairer margin than what her preachers and the mornings of President López Obrador have anticipated. . They also anticipate the dominance, in some cases very tight, of opposition champions in at least three states that will renew the governorship: Guanajuato, Yucatán and Jalisco, and uncertain results in two more: Veracruz and Morelos.
Puebla, Tabasco and Chiapas would be preserved by Morena and its satellite parties. The estimates for Mexico City lean in favor of the official candidate, Clara Brugada, but according to the reports consulted, such a condition may show fragility if the vote reaches or exceeds 70% participation or if the legal complaints about her campaign do not They are correctly resolved in court.
The enormous number of positions in dispute and an unprecedented number of legal complaints from all sides will exert brutal pressure on the electoral arbitrators: the INE headed by Guadalupe Taddei, and the federal electoral court, chaired by Mónica Soto. These are two entities that have been subjected to internal upheavals, which will emerge again in the long run after the elections, according to government, party and international mission estimates that are now observing the process. The period will demand not only good lawyers, but professional negotiators.
The attention of party strategists and the Palace is focused on the battle for the Presidency, as well as on the 628 positions that will make up the new legislatures in San Lázaro and the Senate. The state and capital governments of the country capture a second priority. And every day the pulse of just over 100 mayoralties is maintained – among the more than 1,800 that will be renewed – because they will be where it is decided who wins and who does not gain real power in the country.
Claudia Sheinbaum’s central teams have taken note of the almost fetish character given by the Palace to the figures with which the former capital ruler is expected to triumph. López Obrador has estimated that Dr. Sheinbaum will concentrate 35 million votes. He calculates it based on the growth of the registry, which in 2018, when the Tabasco native won, added 89 million registered citizens, and in 2024 it amounts to 98 million potential voters.
López Obrador won, in 2018, 30 million votes, or 53% of the votes cast, with 63% participation. But the vote in favor of his opponents was dispersed among four: the PAN member Ricardo Anaya (27% of the total), the PRI member José Antonio Meade (16%) and the independent Jaime “El Bronco” Rodríguez (5.23%). That scenario will not be repeated. If there was the same percentage of participation and even if Sheinbaum had the same 53%, he would reach 32 million votes.
However, a collection of more rigorous projections that are attentive to different variables, bring the figure significantly below even this last number. In a few days we will know in reality. He who does not see it will not live long.
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