Xi Jinping returns to Europe five years later

Five years later, Chinese President Xi Jinping returns on an official visit to Europe. But, upon returning, almost nothing is as it was then: first, the pandemic, and then, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, have changed the gravitational forces of geopolitics and created a chasm in economic and diplomatic relations between Beijing and the West. The trip begins this Sunday with Xi’s arrival in France, the central stop of a tour that will later take him to Hungary and Serbia, “by far China’s two biggest allies in Europe,” in the words of a diplomatic source in Beijing. In any case, French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to welcome the Asian leader with gestures of closeness and a moderate tone, something that Chinese analysts interpret as a European Union with two faces. The invitation issued by the Elysée is part of the celebrations of the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between both countries, and responds to Macron’s state visit to China a year ago. In the meeting, of “historical significance”, according to Beijing, it is expected that the Frenchman will once again seek to convince Xi to use his influence over Russia to stop aggression against Ukraine; They will talk about Gaza and also about trade imbalances, another of the major fronts that strain ties with the Asian giant.

Xi disembarks in the old continent with relations with the United States in a stabilization phase, after having reached their lowest point in decades, although the entente still seems to be held on straws. The Chinese leader will try to take advantage of the meeting with Macron to persuade one of the main leaders of the European Union that Brussels lower its “risk reduction” policy towards China. It will also encourage Paris “to maintain strategic autonomy and openness in cooperation” and seek to lead Europe “to form a more independent, objective and friendly opinion about China,” Lu Shaye, the Chinese ambassador to France, said this week. at an appearance in Paris. These concepts are often interpreted as an attempt by Beijing to drive a wedge between European foreign policy and that of the United States. Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, ties between the two sides of the Atlantic have regained the luster lost in the era of Donald Trump in the White House. But his possible return already looms like a shadow and has unleashed alarms in European capitals.

Of the European leaders, Macron may be the one who has expressed the most loudly the need to bet on this autonomy, although Beijing also enters the bag: “Gone are the days when Europe bought its energy and fertilizers from Russia, outsourced its production to China and delegated its security to the United States,” said the Frenchman in a fiery speech at the Sorbonne last week in which he warned of the need for the geopolitical awakening of the EU. “Our Europe is mortal today. She can die.”

For experts at the Trivium China analysis center, Xi “faces an uphill battle” to convince “a distrustful EU” to reverse his risk reduction policy “especially when Beijing does not address the main European concerns.” , according to a recent newsletter. “With two of the main actors in the EU (Macron and [la presidenta de la Comisión Europea, Ursula] Von der Leyen) committed to economic rebalancing, we expect Sino-European trade tensions to get worse before they get better.”

The community Executive, equipped in recent months with new tools to put a stop to a growing trade deficit with the Asian giant – it reached close to 400,000 million euros in 2022 – has taken actions against Chinese companies and sectors that have aroused anger from Beijing. The blows began in September with an investigation into the Chinese electric car industry in search of state subsidies that could distort community competition. Since then, Brussels’ actions have gone in crescendo and up to five investigations have already been initiated. To date, China has undertaken retaliation against European exports of brandy, a measure directed precisely against France – whose cognac accounts for 99.8% of that shipment, according to Chinese customs data cited by Reuters. The EU does not rule out that Beijing activates new countermeasures once Xi’s visit to Europe passes, which “could lead to a trade war,” according to the aforementioned diplomatic source. It also warns that, if China continues not to address European claims, “more” investigations could fall.

Last week is perhaps the best example of how relations with China are entering a new dimension. In the five working days of the week, Germany announced the arrest of four people suspected of spying for the Chinese intelligence services; The European Commission opened a procedure against the Chinese video social network TikTok over suspicions that its Lite application could expose children to risks; European officials stormed the offices of Chinese surveillance equipment maker Nuctech in Warsaw and Rotterdam as part of an investigation into foreign subsidies; The European Parliament voted in favor of a new regulation against forced labor, which, although it does not mention China, has been drawn up with alleged human rights violations in China’s Xinjiang region in mind; The Community Executive also launched an instrument on international public procurement with the launch of an investigation into access to the Chinese market by European medical equipment manufacturers; the German ambassador to China was recalled for consultations over espionage arrests; Belgium did the same with the Chinese ambassador over suspicions that Beijing may have hacked the computer of the president of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Belgian Parliament, and Chinese diplomats in Brussels received the news that the EU is considering blacklisting more Chinese companies for helping Russia evade sanctions, according to South China Morning Post.

This is the gateway with which Europe welcomes Xi, although the visit to France is expected to take a friendly path. Macron will meet the Chinese leader in Paris, where he will hold a three-way meeting with Von der Leyen on Monday; On Tuesday, Xi and Macron will travel with their wives to the Pyrenees to share a more intimate moment in an area where the Frenchman used to visit his grandmother as a child. This journey can be read as a mirror of Macron’s visit to China last year. Then, after the formal face-to-face in Beijing, Xi invited the Frenchman to a tea ceremony in Canton province, where his father, Xi Zhongxun, held the position of governor. They strolled through beautiful gardens and were delighted with the arpeggios of a Chinese zither from more than 1,200 years ago. Macron was criticized then for ensuring that France would not necessarily align itself with US foreign policy.

double language

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also used appeasing language with Beijing in his recent visit to Beijing in mid-April: he was forceful in warning of the risks of helping the Russian war machine through dual-use civil and military exports, he claimed. Xi to put pressure on the Kremlin to end the “crazy campaign” in Ukraine, and, economically, he demanded fair competition from China with the EU. But at the same time he departed from Brussels’ hardest line by warning of the danger of becoming excessively protective against the Asian power.

Chinese analysts interpret this double language as a sign of a community bloc with two faces. “In relations with China, the EU is playing bad cop, and its member countries, such as Germany and France, are playing good cop to make profits,” says Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Studies at Renmin University in Beijing
. From Paris, where he is to attend events linked to Xi’s visit, this academic close to the Beijing Government warns: “Today, if you do not partner with China you will be left behind, especially in green digitalization.”

Former Spanish Foreign Minister Arancha González Laya, dean of the Paris School of International Affairs at Sciences Po, recognizes that there is something of that “good cop, bad cop.” He defends, however, that the EU has undertaken a “quite transparent” and “very coherent” policy to solve a “very serious macroeconomic problem” of the Chinese growth model, which affects the community bloc: excess productive capacity in the sectors of technologies linked to the ecological transition. “One can say it a little more kindly and another a little less, but I think the message [de los Estados y de Bruselas] “He is being the same,” he defends.

Regarding achieving progress in the war in Ukraine, González Laya is “prudent.” He believes that China’s position “matters a lot in the balance of forces,” and that the visit to Paris offers the opportunity to explain the European position “from a country that is two hours away by flight from the war scene.” Although he suspects that Russia and China are waiting for the mystery of who will be the next president of the United States to be cleared up “before taking very visible steps.” Any progress on this matter could be key: Xi plans to receive Russian President Vladimir Putin in May in Beijing; The Russian’s inauguration as president, after winning an election in March without real opposition, will take place on May 7, with Xi still in Europe.

After leaving France, the Asian leader will travel to Hungary and Serbia. In the latter country, the visit coincides with the 25th anniversary of the bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade by NATO – on May 7, 1999 – an episode in which three Chinese journalists died and around twenty diplomats were injured. and that continues to enrage Beijing. He considers it a “barbaric crime” and usually takes advantage of the anniversary to criticize the Atlantic Alliance and its “outdated Cold War mentality.” With Serbia, which is not part of the EU, China maintains an “armored friendship,” according to Xi’s definition. It is part of its New Silk Road alliance, the Chinese infrastructure megaprogram, just like Hungary, the usual fractious voice of the Twenty-Seven. “Hungary is now the only country left for China in the EU where its image is not in tatters,” describes the diplomatic source. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was the only member state leader to travel to a summit celebrating the 10th anniversary of the New Silk Road in Beijing last year. In it, Orbán challenged the EU’s position by meeting with Putin and stating: “Hungary has never wanted to confront Russia.”

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