Brothers of Italy in decline, Forza Italia doing well: the latest survey

Election political polls today 20 April 2024

ELECTION POLITICAL POLLS – Fratelli d'Italia is still at the top of the political spectrum but continues to lose ground. According to the Supermedia Agi/Youtrend, FdI is credited with 27.2% of the votes: this is the lowest point since the government led by Giorgia Meloni took office, far from the peaks above 30% recorded at the end of 2022 and little more than a year ago, when – in March 2023 – FdI was at 30.4%.

Forza Italia, however, is still growing, having now become the second force of the majority: on the eve of the national council, in which Antonio Tajani's candidacy for the European Championships will be made official, the Azzurri gain another three tenths, rising to 8.5% and taking the lead League which remains stable at 8.2%.

However, there are signs to decipher for Emma Bonino and Matteo Renzi, because their common list United States of Europe loses a percentage point and from the 5.7% recorded at the beginning of April as the sum of the +Europa and Italia Viva data it settles at 4 .7%, with the barrier threshold for Brussels no longer far away at this point. Both Avs (now at 3.9%) and Azione (3.7%) remain – slightly – below the 4% target.

HOW POLLS ARE DONE

Electoral and political polls are carried out by opinion polling companies respecting very specific scientific criteria. The authors of the surveys must identify a sample to interview that is sufficiently large and representative of the population they intend to analyse. In the case of surveys on party voting intentions or the confidence index of political leaders, therefore, the interviewees must adequately represent the adult Italian population, those who have the right to vote and who go to the polls. This work is done to minimize the margin of error and make the detection as reliable as possible.

Usually a political-electoral poll is considered reliable if the margin of error indicated is 3 percent with a confidence interval of 95 percent. The greatest difficulty for pollsters is precisely that of identifying a representative sample of the population. Interviews for electoral political surveys are usually carried out with a Cati methodology, by telephone, or Cawi, via the Internet, or mixed. To carry out interviews, opinion polling companies rely on specialized companies.