After relatively happy months, in March the car market freezes, recording a -3.7% with 162,083 new cars registered compared to 168,324 in March 2023. A decline which however does not manage to make the first quarter of the year go negative which records a growth of 5.7% over the same period in 2023 with 451,261 units registered (-16.1% on January-March 2019).
The problem of incentives never arriving
Sure, there were two less working days, but given that the chaos that the Government managed to wreak on incentives (announced in December and not yet operational), it went too well: the long delay in the launch of an incentive policy keeps our country at the bottom of the list compared to the other European Major Markets. The incentives – recalls Unrae, the manufacturers' association – they have been introduced in France for 15 years, in Spain for 14 years, in the United Kingdom for 13 years, in Germany for 8 years and in Italy only for 5 years.
The strategies
“From us – explains Michele Crisci, president of Unrae – after two years of incentives, which were quite timid in terms of unit amounts, in 2022 they were essentially nullified because companies, the true driving force of the energy transition, were excluded. For this reason, approximately 600 million in funds allocated but not spent have been accumulated in two years.”
“We've only been talking about incentives lately”he comments Salvatore Saladino, Country Manager of Dataforce Italia, “when it would have been better not to talk about it at all. Just mentioning them has, as always, had the effect of stalling the market, and now we are expecting this relaunch, a recovery of the sector which, apart from the rebound of those who waited to buy or register, let's be honest, nothing will change a highly compromised situation. If it had been me who decided, I would have scrapped the proposal before it even reached the starting line. If I had been forced, I don't know, by whose interests to throw public money into the big incentive basket, I would have given it only on the second-hand market, at least it would have been spent at home on a volume of replacements probably quadruple compared to what will be finalized with this returned. Then I can't help but think of one of the denominators for which these incentives were approved: accelerating the ecological transition. Which, if we hadn't noticed, up until now has had the effect of global impoverishment, caused the loss of tens of thousands of jobs and cornered the technological supremacy of the European automotive industry which produced so much wealth for everyone. Incentives? Not even!”.
How to get out of the corner
What to do to reverse this trend? According to Unrae, the price ceiling for 0-20 g/km cars should be eliminated, or at least equivalent to that of the 21-60 g/Km range, and that the Government accompanies this transition in a structural way, giving entrepreneurs and consumers a clear vision of the incentive plan for the next 2/3 years. And he hopes that these requests can be introduced soon, thus allowing a more rapid change of direction for our country.
“A further enabling factor to facilitate the path towards the energy transition – he underlines Crisci – is the revision of the tax treatment of company cars in mixed use, acting on VAT deductibility and deductibility of costs based on CO emissions2 and by reducing the amortization period to 3 years, through the implementing decrees of the Fiscal Delegation, in order to relaunch the competitiveness of our companies and enhance the contribution that they, with the rapid replacement of company vehicles, can provide to accelerate the renewal of the circulating park”.
Electric and diesel are bad
We'll see how it ends. Meanwhile, going to see market analysis, in March we still find sales of electric cars stop which without incentives do not take off. In fact, BEV cars lost 1.5 points in March and stopped at 3.3% share (2.9% in January-March), PHEVs dropped by 0.8 points compared to a year ago, to 3, 5% (3.2% cumulatively). “In parallel – he explains Roberto Vavassori, President of Anfia, National Association of the Automotive Industry – even on the charging infrastructure front, the diffusion and capillarity of which constitute another enabling condition for electric mobility, some signs of progress emerge, although there is still much to be done – especially to reach an adequate number of fast charging points and ultra-fast in direct current”.
Petrol cars, on the other hand, saw their market share grow by 3 points in March, to 31.4% of the total, 31.0% cumulatively (+2.9 pp). Diesel, in heavy double-digit decline, fell by 5.1 points in March, to 15.2% of the total in the month, the same share as in the quarter (-4.4 points). LPG, on the other hand, confirms its 7.6% share in the month and 9.2% in the first 3 months of the year.
The analysis of the new segmentation shows an increase in A-segment sedans in March, at 10.5% share, and a strong acceleration in SUVs, at 1.9%. Sedans and SUVs are also growing in the B segment, with a share of 20.7% and 27.5% respectively. In the medium segment (C) both sedans and SUVs fell, stopping at 4.7% and 18.7% share respectively. Strong decline for sedans in the D segment, at 1.0%, while SUVs fell in line with the market, confirming their 6.4% share. Strong growth for both body styles in the top of the range, with sedans at 0.3% share and SUVs at 1.4%. Finally, station wagons represent 4.2% of the total, MPVs 2.0% and sports cars 0.8%.
CO2 emissions are increasing
However, they continue to grow average CO emissions2 of new registrations in March show a slight growth (+0.7%) with 120.3 g/Km; 121.1 g/Km in January-March (+1.0%). And it is no coincidence that there is concern: “The market slowdown continues and is such that it appears inconsistent with the decarbonisation objectives that Europe has set itself – he explains Massimo Artusi, the new President of Federauto, the Federation of car dealers. “In March, in fact, what has already emerged in the previous months is confirmed, namely that in Italy the push towards large-scale electrification is still to be built and, to relaunch purchases of cars with low polluting emissions, especially those linked to fuel electric and plug-in, an acceleration is needed on the Ecobonus 2024 Prime Ministerial Decree front, which has been awaited for months”.
It echoes him Gian Primo Quagliano, president of the Promotor Study Center: “In some countries at the forefront of the diffusion of electric cars – he explains – we are starting to argue that to accelerate the transition the use of incentives is an outdated tool and that structural measures such as the elimination of VAT on cars are now needed electric, and for Italy, also the alignment of the tax legislation on company cars with the European standard which provides for VAT and fully deductible operating costs for company cars”. “Italy – Quagliano continues – it is currently bringing up the rear for the spread of electric cars in the European Union. The adoption of structural measures regarding car taxation, and in particular the elimination of VAT on electric cars, could allow us to recover lost ground and be, for once, at the forefront of the energy transition”.
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