Istanbul Mayor Imamoglu dealt his ruling Justice and Development Party the biggest electoral blow in its two decades in power by winning the 2019 elections. President Erdogan responded in 2023 by securing re-election as president and winning a parliamentary majority with his nationalist allies.
Sunday's elections could now consolidate the AKP's control over NATO member Turkey, or signal a change in the divided political landscape in the country with an important emerging economy. Imamoglu's victory is seen as fueling expectations that he will become a national leader in the future.
Voting centers open their doors at seven in the morning (0400 GMT) in eastern Turkey, while voting in other places begins at eight in the morning and ends at five in the evening. Preliminary results are expected to be released by 10 pm (1900 GMT).
Opinion polls indicate a close electoral race in Istanbul, a city with a population of 16 million that leads the Turkish economy, where Imamoglu faces a challenge from the Justice and Development Party candidate and former minister Murat Kurum.
Factors likely to contribute to the election results include economic problems resulting from rampant inflation approaching 70 percent, as well as Kurdish and Islamist voters' assessment of the government's performance and their hopes for political change.
While the AKP's biggest prize is Istanbul, it also seeks to reclaim the capital, Ankara. The opposition won the two cities in 2019 after they had been under the rule of the Justice and Development Party and its Islamist predecessors for the past 25 years.
President Erdogan's party's chances have improved due to the collapse of the opposition coalition that defeated him last year, although Imamoglu remains popular with voters outside the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP).
Voters from the main pro-Kurdish party played a crucial role in Imamoglu's success in 2019. Their party, the Equality and Peoples' Democracy Party, is this time running its own candidate in Istanbul, but many Kurds are expected to put party loyalty aside and vote for Imamoglu again.
In the country's majority-Kurdish southeast, the Equality and Peoples' Democracy Party seeks to reassert its power after the state ousted the mayors of the pro-Kurdish party following previous elections.
Among the factors working against Erdogan are increased support for the Islamist “New Welfare Party” due to its hardline stance against Israel on the war in Gaza and dissatisfaction with the way the Islamist-rooted Justice and Development Party handles the economy.
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