After Powell, the chance of the Fed maintaining interest rates in March (84.5%) and May (37.5%) increases, shows CME

Monitoring by the CME Group showed an advance in the possibility of maintaining interest rates for longer by the Federal Reserve (Fed, the North American central bank), this Monday morning. The movement followed statements made over the weekend by Fed President Jerome Powell in an interview with the broadcaster CBSin which he reaffirmed that an interest rate cut in March is not the most likely and cited short-term risks, such as the geopolitical situation.

Recently, CME Group monitoring showed an 84.5% chance of the Fed maintaining interest rates in the next decision, on March 20 (from 80% on Friday), in the range between 5.25% and 5.50 %; and 15.5% of a 25 basis point reduction (from 20% on Friday).

For the next decision, on May 1st, there was a 37.5% possibility of maintenance (from 26.8% on Friday); 53.9% from a 25 bp cut; and 8.6% from a 50 bp reduction.

For December, the scenario considered most likely (36.5%) is that interest rates will be in the range between 4.00% and 4.25% (from 38.1% on Friday); followed by that they are between 4.25% and 4.50% (28.0%, from 22.2% on Friday)); and that they are between 3.75% and 4.00% (20.2%, from 27.7% previously).