In Russia, Boris Nadeždin, who is running for the presidential election, has criticized the war and gained clear popularity. Popularity is an important sign of dissatisfaction, but its effect in the short term should not be exaggerated.
Va voting event will be organized in March, which the local authorities call the presidential election.
Of course, it is not about elections in our understanding, where one of the central tasks of elections is to organize a peaceful transfer of power. In Russia, the purpose is precisely not to change power. Instead, the voting event aims to give the image that autocratic leader Vladimir Putin is precisely the will of the people.
The voting event as a whole is largely theater, which is also watched by outsiders. That's why the election fraud on the actual day of the event gets widespread attention, even though it is, despite its blatantness, only a decoration of the numbers at the last moment. What is more important is that the whole system is built so unfairly that actual fraud would not even be necessary. The machine just can't help but do it.
A key feature of Putin's system has been from the beginning to keep the political field empty of all possible challengers. The national television channels were put under strict command, so they focus on broadcasting positive propaganda about Putin. A few obedient and harmless pseudo-opposition parties are allowed into the parliament and the presidential elections – and at the same time some kind of public. The right opposition has been persecuted and its leaders imprisoned or driven into exile.
So, in practice, Putin chooses his counter-candidates, whose role is spectacular defeat. However, the voting event makes the administration nervous, because while presenting itself as democratic and law-abiding, it also opens a small window for legal protests.
One of these has already been seen, when people have been queuing up to give their signatures in support of the candidacy of Boris Nadezhdin, who criticizes Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine. Imprisoned opposition politician Alexei Navalny, on the other hand, urges people to vote at a certain time.
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In practice, Putin chooses his counter-candidates, whose role is spectacular defeat.
AThe popularity of Nadeždin, who can be considered a liberal even from afar, has aroused enthusiasm in Finland as well. The queues at the polling stations have been the most visible protest against the current state of affairs in Russia since the first week of the Russian invasion.
Nadezhdin's getting this far is an injury to the Kremlin's curators of domestic politics. The Kremlin may have been tossing around the idea of nominating a liberal, but it has been determined that such games are no longer needed at this stage of autocracy. Still, no publicly anti-war candidate has even been considered at any point, the subject can only be discussed in public in one way. Such a candidate could also gain enough popularity that Putin's vote share of more than 80 percent would have to be falsified too visibly for the Kremlin's taste.
Twenty percent of Russians have been known to be critical of the war. Now, supporting Nadezhdin offered them a relatively safe way to protest and at the same time feel for a long time that they had done something. This does not necessarily mean that they are ready for further protests since the authorities are likely to block Nadezhdin's bold candidacy. Apathy and fear are so strong despite the miserable conditions. Still, queues are an important sign of dissatisfaction.
Sin Uomo, public talk about the future of Russia is currently swinging from one side to the other. When is Russia at the point of collapse, when has it strengthened and threatens Finland.
In the big picture, Russia is in decline measured by almost all metrics. However, it is persistent in many ways and seems to be getting stronger every moment. The change will probably come suddenly, but before then the current situation may continue for a long time.
Russia's development must be monitored in Finland, but it should be done with a cool head.
The editorials are HS's positions on a current topic. The articles are prepared by HS's editorial department, and they reflect the journal principle line.
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